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Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation

  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Talvi, Ernesto

Both theory and the empirical evidence for a broad range of countries have identified a negative relationship between domestic and foreign saving. Still, based on the experience of the 1990s, a popular view has emerged that domestic and foreign saving are positively related in Asia and negatively related in Latin America. We argue that this popular discussion does not discriminate between trends in domestic saving (which are very different in the two regions) and the cyclical component of saving, which is linked to capital flows. We show that, when trend and cyclical components of domestic saving and capital flows are properly taken into account, the two regions do not differ in the short-run response of domestic saving to capital inflows. We conclude that the main differences pertain to the long-run behavior of saving rates, which are driven by trends in demographic factors, per capita GDP, and other factors that have little to do with fluctuations in capital flows.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13704/1/MPRA_paper_13704.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13704.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Development Econommics 1.57(1998): pp. 45-66
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13704
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  1. Ogaki, M & Reinhart, C-M, 1995. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution : The Role of Durable Goods," RCER Working Papers 404, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Dunnaway, Steve, 1996. "Dealing with capital inflows: Are there any lessons?," MPRA Paper 13764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  4. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  5. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August.
  6. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Nicola Rossi, 1989. "Dependency Rates and Private Savings Behavior in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 166-181, March.
  9. Vaidyanathan, Geetha, 1993. "Consumption, liquidity constraints and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-610.
  10. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
  13. Carroll, Christopher D & Rhee, Byung-Kun & Rhee, Changyong, 1994. "Are There Cultural Effects on Saving? Some Cross-Sectional Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 685-99, August.
  14. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1996. "Saving and Investment: Paradigms, Puzzles, Policies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 87-117, February.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Hamid Faruqee & Aasim M. Husain, 1995. "Saving Trends in Southeast Asia; A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/39, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Giovannini, Alberto, 1985. "Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 197-217, August.
  20. Kokila Doshi, 1994. "Determinants Of The Saving Rate: An International Comparison," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 37-45, 01.
  21. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
  22. Nicola Rossi, 1988. "Government Spending, the Real Interest Rate, and the Behavior of Liquidity-Constrained Consumers in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 104-140, March.
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