IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v3y2003i3_13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are the Trade Deficits of Less Developed Countries Stationary?. Evidence for African Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Holmes, Mark J

Abstract

This study tests for the stationarity of current account deficits for a sample of twenty six African countries. For this purpose, a new test advocated by Breuer, McNown and Wallace (2002) is employed which allows one to test for unit roots in heterogeneous panel datasets. This SURADF test involves estimating ADF regressions within a seemingly unrelated regression framework. While the benefits from creating a panel to overcome low test power are well known, this particular test also offers key advantages over existing alternative panel data unit root tests. Unlike previous tests, we are able to identify which members from within the panel are responsible for rejecting the null hypothesis of joint non-stationarity. In addition to this, the SURADF test does not presume disturbances that are independently and identically distributed. Using annual data covering the period 1960-2000, this study finds strong evidence in favor of current account mean-reversion for twenty one African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Mark J, 2003. "Are the Trade Deficits of Less Developed Countries Stationary?. Evidence for African Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:3:y:2003:i:3_13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid331.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida, 1997. "Cointegration of long span saving and investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-6, January.
    3. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    4. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Charalambos Pattichis & Mona kanaan, 2001. "Is Lebanon’s Trade Deficit Sustainable? A Cointegration Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 54(1), pages 49-56.
    6. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 131-137, August.
    7. Coakley, Jerry & Hasan, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Saving, Investment, and Capital Mobility in LDCs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 632-640, November.
    8. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    2. Santosh Kumar Dash, 2017. "Analyzing Current Account Sustainability through the Saving-Investment Correlation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2860-2870.
    3. Abm Nasir & Abdullah M. Noman, 2012. "Sustainability of external debt: further evidence from non-linear framework," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 673-685, December.
    4. Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1937-1947.
    5. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Africa: Stylized Facts and Basic Determinants," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 191-221, October.
    6. Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Chang, Tsangyao & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Young, 2007. "Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 485-492.
    7. László Kónya, 2004. "Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries," Working Papers 2004.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    8. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4).
    9. AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.
    10. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Papers hal-04141160, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark J. Holmes, 2004. "Current Account Deficits in the Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(4), pages 347-358.
    2. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity in Selected African Countries - a Panel Data Approach," Working Papers in Economics 39, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    4. Groen, J.J.J., 2000. "New multi-country evidence on purchasing power parity: multivariate unit root test results," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-09/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    6. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June.
    7. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    8. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    9. David Harris & Steve Leybourne & Brendan McCabe, 2003. "Panel Stationarity Tests with Cross-sectional Dependence," Econometrics 0311005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Martin Wagner, 2008. "On PPP, unit roots and panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 229-249, September.
    11. Claude Lopez, 2009. "A Panel Unit Root Test with Good Power in Small Samples," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 295-313.
    12. Carlsson, Mikael & Lyhagen, Johan & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels," Working Paper Series 2008:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    13. Mark Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "The sustainability of India's current account," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 219-229.
    14. Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "Forward premiums and market efficiency: Panel unit-root evidence from the term structure of forward premiums," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 109-122, March.
    15. Yersh, Valeryia, 2020. "Current account sustainability and capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries," MPRA Paper 105440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2005. "Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 77-91, January.
    17. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2007. "The Sustainability of India's current account (1950-2003): Evidence from parametric and non-parametric unit root and cointegration tests," Working Paper series 41_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556.
    19. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 2007. "Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: Evidence from panel data tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 240-251, May.
    20. George Kapetanios, 2007. "Dynamic factor extraction of cross-sectional dependence in panel unit root tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 313-338.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:3:y:2003:i:3_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.