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The sustainability of India’S current account



This study conducts an investigation into the sustainability of the Indian current account over the study period 1950-2003. A necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. After testing for unit roots that allow for a structural break, we employ parametric tests for cointegration: based on Johansen (1995) and Saikonnen and Lutkepohl (2000) as well as the nonparametric procedure proposed by Breitung (2002) and Breitung and Taylor (2003) that does not assume linearity. By employing these procedures recursively, two distinct regimes are identified characterised by whether or not imports and exports are cointegrated. The regime of non-cointegration runs until the late 1990s and the second regime of cointegration is present after that. This latter regime coincides with the liberalisation of the Indian economy.

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  • Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2007. "The sustainability of India’S current account," Discussion Paper Series 2007_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2007_05

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2016. "Changes in sovereign debt dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 16-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    2. Luis Sastre, 2016. "Exchange Rate, Cross Elasticities Between Exports and Imports and Current Account Sustainability: The Spanish Case," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 32-46, November.
    3. Sahoo, Manoranjan & babu, M. Suresh & Dash, Umakant, 2016. "Current account sustainability in SAARC economies: Evidence from combined cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 79014, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    4. Martina Alexová, 2012. "What determines inflation?," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 345-369.
    5. Sahoo, Manoranjan & Babu, M. Suresh & Dash, Umakant, 2016. "Long run sustainability of current account balance of China and India: New evidence from combined cointegration test," MPRA Paper 79013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00517 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.
    8. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Reassessment of Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 10(1), pages 67-79.
    9. repec:eee:asieco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:23-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Barbara Pistoresi, 2013. "Italy's current account sustainability:a long run perspective, 1861-2000," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    11. Mousumi Bhattacharya & Sharad Nath Bhattacharya, 2011. "The Interrelationship Between Merchandise Trade, Economic Growth and FDI Inflows in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(2), pages 229-244.
    12. Amba Oyon Claude Marius & Taoufiki Mbratana & Kane Gilles Quentin, 2017. "Assessing the current account sustainability in ECCAS economies: A dual cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1873-1894.

    More about this item


    India; current account; cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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