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A new approach to examining the sustainability of external imbalances: the case of Japan


  • Tuck Cheong Tang


This study aims to solve the puzzle of the conventional practice of examining the sustainability of external accounts by initially looking for cointegration between imports and exports. This study proposes a new approach to examine this thesis using unit root tests (with unknown break date) on trade balance series rather than testing the cointegration relationships between imports and exports. In contrast to previous findings, this study has shown empirically that Japan's trade balances are unsustainable. This finding has important policy implications for Japan's external accounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "A new approach to examining the sustainability of external imbalances: the case of Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 287-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:5:p:287-292 DOI: 10.1080/13504850500378726

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
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    8. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    11. McCoskey, Suzanne & Kao, Chihwa, 1999. " Testing the Stability of a Production Function with Urbanization as a Shift Factor," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 671-690, Special I.
    12. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Junsoo Lee & Mark Strazicich, 2001. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-382.
    14. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "The sustainability of India's current account," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 219-229.
    2. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union," MPRA Paper 51244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2013.
    3. Ayla Oğuş Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 89-104, March.
    4. Arize, Augustine C. & BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen, 2017. "Do Imports and Exports Adjust Nonlinearly? Evidence from 100 Countries," MPRA Paper 82807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:pid:journl:v:55:y:2016:i:4:p:397-419 is not listed on IDEAS

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