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Do Imports and Exports Adjust Nonlinearly? Evidence from 100 Countries

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  • Arize, Augustine C.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen

Abstract

A country is said to live within its international budget constraint if its exports and imports are cointegrated. Previous studies that tried to verify the cointegration between exports and imports used linear models and supported the theory in almost 50% of countries. In this paper, when we use the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetry cointegration method, we support the long-run link between imports and exports in 94 out of 100 countries in our sample. This study is not only the most comprehensive study in the literature, but it is also the first to show that, indeed, trade flows adjust in a nonlinear fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Arize, Augustine C. & BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen, 2017. "Do Imports and Exports Adjust Nonlinearly? Evidence from 100 Countries," MPRA Paper 82807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82807
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2016. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 51-70, February.
    2. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "Are Imports And Exports In The Oic Member Countries Cointegrated? A Reexamination," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 14(1), pages 49-79, December.
    3. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "A new approach to examining the sustainability of external imbalances: the case of Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 287-292.
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    5. Albert Wijeweera & John A. Deskins, 2010. "Do recent data provide evidence that the US trade deficit will correct itself?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 31-35, January.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Arize, A. C. & Malindretos, John & Grivoyannis, Elias C., 2005. "Inflation-rate volatility and money demand: Evidence from less developed countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 57-80.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hyun-Jae Rhee, 1997. "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 109-114.
    9. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
    10. Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April.
    11. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2005. "Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from 22 least developed countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 375-378.
    12. Jamal HUSEIN, 2014. "Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Nine MENA Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 123-132.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2004. "Is There A Long-Run Relationship Between Exports And Imports? Evidence From Two Pacific Island Countries," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 23(2), pages 152-164, June.
    14. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    15. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    16. B. Andreosso‐O’Callaghan & Denis Kan, 2007. "Analysis Of The Current Account Position Of Four Asian Countries Before The 1997 Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 47-61, February.
    17. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2015. "Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 519-530, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    2. Olufemi G. Onatunji, 2023. "Sustainability of current account deficits in Nigeria: evidence from the asymmetric NARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imports; Exports; Asymmetry Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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