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Are Indian Exports And Imports Cointegrated?

Author

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  • KONYA, Laszlo

    ()

  • SINGH, Jai Pal

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically the presence of an equilibrium relationship between the logarithms of Indian exports and imports between 1949/50 and 2004/2005, using the unit-root, cointegration approach. To ascertain robustness, exports and imports measured in current prices but in two currencies, Indian rupee and US dollar have been analyzed. Moreover, since the sample comprises data from both the fixed and freely floating exchange rate periods, the tests have also been performed allowing for a one-time structural break in 1992/93. The results indicate no-cointegration between exports and imports. The lack of cointegration means that Indian macroeconomic policies have been ineffective in bringing exports and imports into long-run equilibrium and India is in violation of her international budget constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • KONYA, Laszlo & SINGH, Jai Pal, 2008. "Are Indian Exports And Imports Cointegrated?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 177-186.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_14
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "Are Imports And Exports In The Oic Member Countries Cointegrated? A Reexamination," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 14(1), pages 49-79, December.
    5. Irandoust Manuchehr & Sjoo Boo, 2000. "The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 41-57.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2005. "Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from 22 least developed countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 375-378.
    7. Guisan, M.C., 2004. "Human Capital, Trade and Development in India, China, Japan and other Asian Countries, 1960-2002: Econometric Models and Causality Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(3), pages 123-139.
    8. Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, February.
    9. Dierk Herzer & Nowak-Lehmann Felicitas, 2006. "Is there a long-run relationship between exports and imports in Chile?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 981-986.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Reassessment of Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 10(1), pages 67-79.
    2. Genci Gjanci & Ardian Cerava, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the trade balance in postcommunist Albania," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 7(1), pages 33-42, June.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral, 2010. "Is trade deficit sustainable in India? An inquiry," MPRA Paper 24451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Antwi-Boateng, Cosmos, 2015. "Is Ghana achieving sustainable trade balance in the participation of international trade? time series assessment for Ghana," MPRA Paper 67268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:arp:ijefrr:2018:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Zeshan Arshad & Saba Mukhtar & Amina Bibi & Azeema Zia, 2015. "Imports and Exports of Pakistan Time Series (1970-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(10), pages 473-478, October.
    8. KHOKHAR, Joga Singh, 2010. "Will India’S Trade Deficit Ever Converge To Zero?- An Application Of Bounds Testing Approach To Co-Integration," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    9. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:204-211 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Abdulla S. Al-Khulaifi, 2013. "Exports and Imports in Qatar: Evidence from Cointegration and Error Correction Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(9), pages 1122-1133, September.
    11. Haque, M.I., 2015. "Are exports and imports of Saudi Arabia cointegrated? An empirical study," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 111-124.
    12. Nag, Biswajit & Mukherjee, Jaydeep, 2012. "The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 519-526.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; Import; Cointegration; India;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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