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Are Imports And Exports In The Oic Member Countries Cointegrated? A Reexamination

  • Tuck Cheong Tang

    ()

    (School of Business, Monash University Malaysia.)

Applying the recently developed unit root tests with unknown level shift (Lanne, Lutkepohl and Saikkonen, 2002; Saikkonen and Lutkepohl, 2002) and the cointegration test with structural break (Gregory and Hansen, 1996), this study reinvestigates the cointegration relationship between imports and exports for the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) member countries as in Tang and Mohammad (2005). It is found that restrictions are not applicable for testing cointegration between imports and exports for OIC member countries. Interestingly, this study shows cointegration between exports and imports for 9 of the 27 selected OIC member countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Guyana, Indonesia, Mali, Morocco, Niger and Senegal) compared to only 4 countries as demonstrated by Tang and Mohammad (2005). Consequently, relevant policy implications are also discussed in this study.

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Article provided by IIUM Journal of Economis and Management in its journal IIUM Journal of Economics and Management.

Volume (Year): 14 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 49-79

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Handle: RePEc:ije:journl:v:14:y:2006:i:1:p:49-79
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  1. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/140, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  4. Lanne, Markku & L├╝tkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Test procedures for unit roots in time series with level shifts at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,39, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  5. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2002. "On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries," Working Papers 0062, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
  8. Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, 02.
  9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hyun-Jae Rhee, 1997. "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 109-114.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  11. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "Are Imports And Exports In The Oic Member Countries Cointegrated? A Reexamination," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 14(1), pages 49-79, December.
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