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Are Imports And Exports In The Oic Member Countries Cointegrated? A Reexamination

Author

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  • Tuck Cheong Tang

    () (School of Business, Monash University Malaysia.)

Abstract

Applying the recently developed unit root tests with unknown level shift (Lanne, Lutkepohl and Saikkonen, 2002; Saikkonen and Lutkepohl, 2002) and the cointegration test with structural break (Gregory and Hansen, 1996), this study reinvestigates the cointegration relationship between imports and exports for the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) member countries as in Tang and Mohammad (2005). It is found that restrictions are not applicable for testing cointegration between imports and exports for OIC member countries. Interestingly, this study shows cointegration between exports and imports for 9 of the 27 selected OIC member countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Guyana, Indonesia, Mali, Morocco, Niger and Senegal) compared to only 4 countries as demonstrated by Tang and Mohammad (2005). Consequently, relevant policy implications are also discussed in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "Are Imports And Exports In The Oic Member Countries Cointegrated? A Reexamination," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 14(1), pages 49-79, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ije:journl:v:14:y:2006:i:1:p:49-79
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    File URL: http://www.iium.edu.my/enmjournal/141art3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
    2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    3. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
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    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hyun-Jae Rhee, 1997. "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 109-114.
    9. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    10. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    11. Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. KONYA, Laszlo & SINGH, Jai Pal, 2008. "Are Indian Exports And Imports Cointegrated?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 177-186.
    2. Genci Gjanci & Ardian Cerava, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the trade balance in postcommunist Albania," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 7(1), pages 33-42, June.
    3. Zeshan Arshad & Saba Mukhtar & Amina Bibi & Azeema Zia, 2015. "Imports and Exports of Pakistan Time Series (1970-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(10), pages 473-478, October.
    4. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:204-211 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. de-Graft Acquah, Henry & De-Graft Acquah, Joyce, 2015. "An Application of the Error Correction Model in Analyzing the Long Run Equilibrium between Ghana’s Exports and Imports," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 9(3).
    6. Jamal HUSEIN, 2014. "Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Nine MENA Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 123-132.
    7. Haque, M.I., 2015. "Are exports and imports of Saudi Arabia cointegrated? An empirical study," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 111-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Structural break; Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC);

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

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