IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/79014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current account sustainability in SAARC economies: Evidence from combined cointegration approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sahoo, Manoranjan
  • babu, M. Suresh
  • Dash, Umakant

Abstract

Majority of the South Asian economies are experiencing continuous deficits in their current account along with high external borrowing. This may question the sustainability of their external obligation in the long run. Therefore, this study examines the long run sustainability of current account imbalances of Seven South Asian economies for the period 1980 to 2014. By applying the recently developed econometric methods, we found that the current account of Maldives and Sri Lanka is sustainable in the long run, while for the rest of the South Asian economies the current account is not sustainable. This results have important policy implications. In particular, the South Asian economies should increase their cooperation with each other in terms of trade and investment to minimize the external sector imbalances and to achieve an increasing growth momentum in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahoo, Manoranjan & babu, M. Suresh & Dash, Umakant, 2016. "Current account sustainability in SAARC economies: Evidence from combined cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 79014, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79014/1/MPRA_paper_79014.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "Current account sustainability in advanced economies," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 1000-1017, October.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1998. "Capital mobility in the world economy: an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 741-756, October.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The role of globalization on the recent evolution of energy demand in India: Implications for sustainable development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 52-68.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Mark Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Abhijit Sharma, 2011. "The sustainability of India's current account," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 219-229.
    8. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2005. "Current Account Deficit Sustainability: a Panel Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 514-529.
    9. Karunaratne, Neil Dias, 2010. "The sustainability of Australia's current account deficits--A reappraisal after the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 81-97, January.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    13. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk, 2010. "Sustainability of current account for Latin America and Caribbean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 781-785.
    14. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    15. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2013. "What drives China's current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 856-883.
    18. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    19. Mr. Tim Callen & Mr. Paul Cashin, 1999. "Assessing External Sustainability in India," IMF Working Papers 1999/181, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
    21. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    22. Brandt,Loren & Rawski,Thomas G. (ed.), 2008. "China's Great Economic Transformation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885577, October.
    23. Panagariya, Arvind, 2011. "India: The Emerging Giant," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199751563.
    24. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    25. Brandt,Loren & Rawski,Thomas G. (ed.), 2008. "China's Great Economic Transformation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521712903, October.
    26. Prasad Bal, Debi & Narayan Rath, Badri, 2015. "Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 149-156.
    27. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    28. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    29. Andong Zhu & David M. Kotz, 2011. "The Dependence of China's Economic Growth on Exports and Investment," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 9-32, March.
    30. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
    31. Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik, 2007. "India's Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Deficit," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 609-644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    33. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Hwang, Young-Soon & McDonald, Judith A., 2009. "Are Asian countries' current accounts sustainable? Deficits, even when associated with high investment, are not costless," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 163-179.
    34. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account in the Eacroeconomic Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 0796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shruti Shastri & A. K. Giri & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra, 2018. "Testing the Sustainability of Current Accounts for Major South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Manoranjan Sahoo, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Service Exports from India: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1090-1101.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sahoo, Manoranjan & Babu, M. Suresh & Dash, Umakant, 2016. "Long run sustainability of current account balance of China and India: New evidence from combined cointegration test," MPRA Paper 79013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    2. Manoranjan SAHOO & M Suresh BABU & Umakant DASH, 2016. "Current account sustainability in SAARC economies: Evidence from combined cointegration approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 281-298, Winter.
    3. Manoranjan SAHOO & M Suresh BABU & Umakant DASH, 2016. "Current account sustainability in SAARC economies: Evidence from combined cointegration approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 281-298, Winter.
    4. Devi Prasad DASH & Debi Prasad BAL & Manoranjan SAHOO, 2016. "Nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in BRIC economies: An empirical investigation," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 89-102, Spring.
    5. Amba Oyon Claude Marius & Taoufiki Mbratana & Kane Gilles Quentin, 2017. "Assessing the current account sustainability in ECCAS economies: A dual cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1873-1894.
    6. Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Babu, M. Suresh & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Does financial development intensify energy consumption in Saudi Arabia?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1022-1034.
    7. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    8. Yersh, Valeryia, 2020. "Current account sustainability and capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries," MPRA Paper 105440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Jemaa, Mohamed Mekki Ben, 2015. "On the causal nexus of road transport CO2 emissions and macroeconomic variables in Tunisia: Evidence from combined cointegration tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-100.
    10. Tahir Mukhtar & Aliya H. Khan, 2016. "The Current Account Deficit Sustainability: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 397-419.
    11. Heidari, Hassan & Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Davoudi, Narmin, 2012. "Are current account deficits sustainable? New evidence from Iran using bounds test approach to level relationships," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-18.
    12. Mohammed Shuaibu & Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria’s Current Account Sustainability," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 54-76, February.
    13. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    14. Debi P Bal & Badri N Rath, 2019. "Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India - A Reassessment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 592-604.
    15. Farhani, Sahbi & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola, 2017. "Financial development and energy demand in the United States: New evidence from combined cointegration and asymmetric causality tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1029-1037.
    16. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    17. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices and the exchange rate in the long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The role of globalization on the recent evolution of energy demand in India: Implications for sustainable development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 52-68.
    19. Jamal HUSEIN & Chuck PIER, 2019. "Long-Run Sustainability Of Current Account Balance: Evidence From Twenty North And Latin American Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 75-90.
    20. Seema Narayan & Sivagowry Sriananthakumar, 2020. "Are the Current Account Imbalances on a Sustainable Path?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account deficit Intertemporal budget constraint Sustainability South Asian Economies.;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.