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The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy

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  • Nag, Biswajit
  • Mukherjee, Jaydeep

Abstract

This study examines the long-run relationship between exports and imports of the Indian economy during 1950–51 to 2008–09. Applying unit root test and cointegration technique that allows for endogenously determined structural break in the relationship, the results do not support the existence of any long-run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports and interest payments on net debt for India. Individually exports and imports have multiple breaks clustered roughly around three periods: early and mid seventies – the ‘comfort period’ in the country's balance of payments; 1986–87 that witnessed a sudden jump in exports trend after experiencing a flat trend in the first half of 1980s; and 1997–98 following the East Asian currency crisis. The findings imply that India's macroeconomic policies have not been very effective to ensure sustainability of trade deficit in the long-run and suggest that India is in violation of its international budget constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Nag, Biswajit & Mukherjee, Jaydeep, 2012. "The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 519-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:519-526
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.05.003
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    3. Huynh, Cong Minh & Hong, Thien Huong, 2022. "The multi-dimension of international logistics performance and export flows: An empirical study from developing countries," MPRA Paper 112444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rishika Nayyar & Jaydeep Mukherjee, 2018. "Outward FDI from India: A macro level examination in the presence of structural breaks," Working Papers 1833, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    5. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Debashis CHAKRABORTY & Sacchidananda MUKHERJEE, 2016. "How Trade Facilitation Measures influence Export Orientation? Empirical Estimates with Logistics Performance Index Data," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 554-569, December.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    8. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    9. Chakraborty Debashis & Mukherjee Jaydeep & Lee Jaewook, 2017. "FDI Inflows Influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis for India over 1991-2016 : Causality Analysis for India Over 1991–2016," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-10, September.
    10. Wong Hock Tsen, 2014. "External Balance And Budget In Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 37-54.
    11. Tomás Barrio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 45-75, June.
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