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The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy

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  • Nag, Biswajit
  • Mukherjee, Jaydeep

Abstract

This study examines the long-run relationship between exports and imports of the Indian economy during 1950–51 to 2008–09. Applying unit root test and cointegration technique that allows for endogenously determined structural break in the relationship, the results do not support the existence of any long-run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports and interest payments on net debt for India. Individually exports and imports have multiple breaks clustered roughly around three periods: early and mid seventies – the ‘comfort period’ in the country's balance of payments; 1986–87 that witnessed a sudden jump in exports trend after experiencing a flat trend in the first half of 1980s; and 1997–98 following the East Asian currency crisis. The findings imply that India's macroeconomic policies have not been very effective to ensure sustainability of trade deficit in the long-run and suggest that India is in violation of its international budget constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Nag, Biswajit & Mukherjee, Jaydeep, 2012. "The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 519-526.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:519-526
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.05.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.
    2. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Debashis CHAKRABORTY & Sacchidananda MUKHERJEE, 2016. "How Trade Facilitation Measures influence Export Orientation? Empirical Estimates with Logistics Performance Index Data," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 554-569, December.
    4. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    5. Wong Hock Tsen, 2014. "External Balance And Budget In Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 37-54.
    6. repec:eee:asieco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:23-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sacchidananda Mukherjee & Debashis Chakraborty & Julien Chaisse, 2014. "Influence of Subsidies on Exports empirical estimates,policy evidences and regulatory prospects," Working Papers 1422, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    8. Baiardi, Donatella & Bianchi, Carluccio & Lorenzini, Eleonora, 2015. "The price and income elasticities of the top clothing exporters: Evidence from a panel data analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 14-30.
    9. Daniel Ventosa-santaulària & Manuel Gómez-zaldívar & Lizet A Pérez, 2013. "Long-run relationship with shifts between Mexican current account revenues and expenditures," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1317-1327.

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