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Japan-U.S. trade balance at commodity level and asymmetric effects of Yen-Dollar rate

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Karamelikli, Huseyin

Abstract

Previous research that applied the new nonlinear methods to Japan’s trade balance with the rest of the world or between Japan and its major partner, the U.S., could not discover any asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes. Suspecting that aggregation bias could play a role, in this paper we concentrate on the Japan-U.S. trade balance but disaggregate their trade flows by commodity and consider the response of the trade balance of each of the 56 industries to industry-specific real exchange rate changes. We find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in 44 industries and short-run impact asymmetric effects in 19 industries. However, the short-run effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 18 industries. Small as well as large industries are included. Our approach identifies industries that will benefit from a yen depreciation or that will be hurt from a yen appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2018. "Japan-U.S. trade balance at commodity level and asymmetric effects of Yen-Dollar rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2018.06.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thorbecke, Willem & Salike, Nimesh & Chen, Chen, 2022. "The impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese chemical industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Nguyen, Thi-Ngoc Anh & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2019. "Firm predicted exchange rates and nonlinearities in pricing-to-market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Onatunji Olufemi, 2019. "Do real exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on trade balance in Nigeria? Evidence from Non-linear ARDL Model," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 11(1), pages 14-23, June.
    4. Yixiao Jiang & George K. Zestos & Zachary Timmerman, 2020. "A Vector Error Correction Model for Japanese Real Exports," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 297-311, September.
    5. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2021. "The Impacts of Trade Policy Uncertainties on Bilateral Trade Balances of the United States and Japan," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 236-247, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan-U.S trade; 56 industries; Industry-specific exchange rate; Non-linear ARDL; Asymmetric effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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