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Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

This paper examines whether stock prices for a sample of 22 OECD countries can be best represented as mean reversion or random walk processes. A sequential trend break test proposed by Zivot and Andrews is implemented, which has the advantage that it can take account of a structural break in the series, as well as panel data unit root tests proposed by Im et al., which exploits the extra power in the panel properties of the data. Results provide strong support for the random walk hypothesis.

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:8:p:547-556
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000314223
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    Cited by:

    1. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    2. Wang, Juan & Zhang, Dongxiang & Zhang, Jian, 2015. "Mean reversion in stock prices of seven Asian stock markets: Unit root test and stationary test with Fourier functions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 157-164.
    3. Chancharat,Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of the Thai and Major International Stock Markets," Economics Working Papers wp07-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:11:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Random walk versus multiple trend breaks in stock prices: evidence from 15 European markets," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-7, January.
    6. Chancharat, Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Structural Breaks and Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis in International Stock Prices," MPRA Paper 50394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    8. Chancharat,Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis and Structural Breaks in International Stock Prices," Economics Working Papers wp07-15, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    9. Chancharat, Surachai & Kamalian, Amin Reza & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2009. "Random Walk and Multiple Structural Breaks In Thai Stock Market," MPRA Paper 50395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:jfr:rwe111:v:8:y:2017:i:2:p:12-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tülin Anlas & Cengiz Toraman, 2016. "Analysing the Efficiency of the Turkish Stock Market with Multiple Structural Breaks," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(12), pages 721-740, December.
    12. Lu, Yang-Cheng & Chang, Tsangyao & Hung, Ken & Liu, Wen-Chi, 2010. "Mean reversion in G-7 stock prices: Further evidence from a panel stationary test with multiple structural breaks," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2019-2025.
    13. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Do stock returns in India exhibit a mean reverting tendency? Evidence from multiple structural breaks test," MPRA Paper 46502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Takao Fujii, 2012. "Substitutability of Savings by Sectors: OECD Experiences," Discussion Papers 1215, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2010. "Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 49-58, January.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2161-2166.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 152-166, April.
    18. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
    19. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2006. "The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 103-108.
    20. Zheng Yi & Chen Heng & Wing-Keung Wong, 2009. "China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    21. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.

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