Do stock returns in India exhibit a mean reverting tendency? Evidence from multiple structural breaks test
This paper re-examines the issue of mean-reversion in Indian equity market. Unlike earlier studies, the present paper carries out multiple structural breaks test and uses new and disaggregated data set. The study found significant structural breaks in the returns series of all selected indices and thus provide evidence of mean-reverting tendency in the Indian stock returns. This implies violation of efficient market hypothesis in India. The endogenously searched significant structural breaks occurred in the years 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2008 for most of the indices indicating respectively rise in international oil prices, global recession, erratic fluctuations in exchange rates, and sub-prime crisis followed by global meltdown. The evidences of structural breaks and mean-reverting tendency indicate possibility to predict the future returns. Further, it is observed that small indices with less liquidity and lower market capitalization are more vulnerable to external events than the liquid indices. The results call for appropriate policy and regulatory measures particularly external shocks to improve the efficiency of the market.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Banking and Finance Letters 4.2(2010): pp. 371-390|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chancharat,Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis and Structural Breaks in International Stock Prices," Economics Working Papers wp07-15, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 152-166, April.
- Ronald Balvers & Yangru Wu & Erik Gilliland, 2000. "Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 745-772, 04.
- Papell, David H & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2004. "The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 423-27, June.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992.
"Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
- Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556.
- Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gourishankar S Hiremath & Bandi Kamaiah, 2010. "Nonlinear Dependence in Stock Returns: Evidences from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 69-85, January.
- Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
- Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988.
"Searching For a Break in GNP,"
NBER Working Papers
2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-48, November.
- Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots,"
360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Payne, James & Lee, Junsoo & Hofler, Richard, 2005. "Purchasing power parity: Evidence from a transition economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 665-672, September.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
- McQueen, Grant, 1992. "Long-Horizon Mean-Reverting Stock Prices Revisited," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 1-18, March.
- Yangru Wu, 1997. "The trend behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence from OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(2), pages 282-296, 06.
- Ralf Brüggemann & Carsten Trenkler, 2005.
"Are Eastern European Countries Catching Up? Time Series Evidence for Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2005-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Ralf Bruggemann & Carsten Trenkler, 2007. "Are Eastern European Countries Catching Up? Time Series Evidence for Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 245-249.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.