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The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria

  • Gancho Todorov Ganchev

    (South-West University, Blagoevgrad)

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    Recent developments in the Bulgarian economy bring into question the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis. This paper analyses the theoretical foundations of and alternative explanations for this hypothesis and uses different econometric approaches to test its validity on a sample of the Bulgarian data. A Granger causality test suggests the existence of dual causality between the fiscal and current account deficits. A vector autoregressive and a vector error correction model both reject the twin deficit hypothesis in the short run, but indicate that it might be valid in the long run.

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    File URL: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2010/4/ganchev.pdf
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    Article provided by Institute of Public Finance in its journal Financial Theory and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 357-377

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    Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:357-377
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    2. Kevin Grier & Haichun Ye, 2009. "Twin Sons Of Different Mothers: The Long And The Short Of The Twin Deficits Debate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 625-638, October.
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    7. Köhler, Matthias, 2005. "International Capital Mobility and Current Account Targeting in Central and Eastern European Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-51, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Gandolfo, Giancarlo & Goldberg, Michael D., 2005. "International Finance And Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 263-266, April.
    9. Nelson Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2006. "Fiscal, Foreign, And Private Net Borrowing: Widely Accepted Theories Don’T Closely Fit The Facts," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 177, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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