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The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria

Author

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  • Gancho Todorov Ganchev

    (South-West University, Blagoevgrad)

Abstract

Recent developments in the Bulgarian economy bring into question the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis. This paper analyses the theoretical foundations of and alternative explanations for this hypothesis and uses different econometric approaches to test its validity on a sample of the Bulgarian data. A Granger causality test suggests the existence of dual causality between the fiscal and current account deficits. A vector autoregressive and a vector error correction model both reject the twin deficit hypothesis in the short run, but indicate that it might be valid in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:357-377
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    File URL: http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2010/4/ganchev.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. James Feyrer & Jay Shambaugh, 2012. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 95-114, May.
    5. Kevin Grier & Haichun Ye, 2009. "Twin Sons Of Different Mothers: The Long And The Short Of The Twin Deficits Debate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 625-638, October.
    6. J. J. Polak, 2001. "The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments; Keynesian and Johnsonian," IMF Working Papers 01/100, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Arnold C. Harberger, 2008. "Lessons from Monetary and Real Exchange Rate Economics," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 28(2), Winter.
    8. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
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    11. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2016. "International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-49862-0, April.
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    13. Nelson Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2006. "Fiscal, Foreign, And Private Net Borrowing: Widely Accepted Theories Don’T Closely Fit The Facts," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 177, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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    Cited by:

    1. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.
    2. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.

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