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A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif
  • Gök, Barış
  • Akseki, Utku

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the twin deficits hypothesis covering the period from 1994 to 2012 in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of twin deficits is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our results suggest that the dynamics between the current account and budget account variables are affected by macroeconomic activity: twin deficits are only the case in the upper regime, when the economy operates above its potential level. When the economy is in the lower regime, budget and trade deficits show divergent movements. The results are consistent with Kim and Roubini (2008), indicating that the divergence of fiscal balance and current account might be explained by the cyclical fluctuations of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:181-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.05.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barış Gök & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık, 2016. "Is There Any Time-Varying Relationship between Fiscal and Trade Deficits in Turkey?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(5), pages 607-616.
    2. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    3. Mumtaz, Kinza & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Dynamics of Twin Deficits in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 74592, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget account; Current account; Threshold VAR model; Business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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