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Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in Case of Pakistan

  • Javid, Attiya Y.
  • Javid, Muhammad
  • Arif, Umaima

The study empirically investigates the effects of fiscal policy or government budget deficit shocks on the current account and the other macroeconomic variable: real output, real interest rate and exchange rate for Pakistan over the period 1960-2009. The structural Vector Autoregressive model is employed; the exogenous fiscal policy shocks are identified after controlling the business cycle effects on fiscal balances. The results suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy shock improves the current account and depreciates the exchange rate. The rise in private saving and the fall in investment contribute to the current account improvement while the exchange rate depreciation. The twin divergence of fiscal deficit and current account deficit is also explained by the output shock which seems to drive the current account movements and its comovements with the fiscal balance.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34858/1/MPRA_paper_34858.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34858.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34858
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  1. repec:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:535-550 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 10/121, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 597-638, October.
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  7. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
  8. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  9. Barro, Robert J., 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Scholarly Articles 3451294, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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