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Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending in Pakistan’s Economy


  • Attiya Yasmin Javid

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Umaima Arif

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)


This study analyses the effects of changes in government spending on aggregate economic activity and the way these effects are transmitted in case of Pakistan for the period 1971–2008. To analyse the transmission mechanism of government spending innovations, the Vector Autoregressive Model is estimated for following five variables: government spending per capita, GDP per capita, consumption per capita, debt to GDP ratio, long term interest rate and real exchange rate. The consumption and output respond negatively to the innovation in government spending which is consistent with the standard neoclassical model. The interest rates increase in the face of expansionary fiscal spending. As government debt builds up with fiscal expansion, the rising risk of default or increasing inflation risk reinforce crowding out through interest rates. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate in response to rise in government spending. This finding is according to the open economy literature and also with the conventional literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Attiya Yasmin Javid & Umaima Arif, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending in Pakistan’s Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 973-988.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:973-988

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Naveed TAHIR & Faran ALI & Dawood MAMOON, 2016. "Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime for Economic Structure of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 629-641, December.
    2. Attiya Y. Javid & Muhammad Javid & Umiama Arif, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 577-592.

    More about this item


    Government Spending; Vector Autoregressive Model; Impulse Response Function; Neoclassical Model;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy


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