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Reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesine etkisi: Türkiye için Marshall-Lerner koşulunun testi

Listed author(s):
  • Nilgün ÇİL YAVUZ

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi)

  • Burak GÜRİŞ

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi)

  • Burcu KIRAN

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi)

Bu çalışmanın amacı reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesine etkisini araştırarak, Türkiye için Marshall Lerner koşulunun geçerliliğini test etmektir. Bu amaçla eşbütünleşme testi için, son olarak geliştirilen ve otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeli (ARDL) modeline dayalı sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. 1988-2007 arası dönemi kapsayan ve üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı modellerden dış ticaret dengesi ile belirleyicileri- yurt dışı ve yurt içi gelir, reel döviz kuru- arasında uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Tahmin edilen ARDL modelin uzun dönem statik çözümlemesinden Marshall Lerner koşulunun geçerli olmadığı ve hata düzeltme modelinin tahmini ile sağlanan kısa dönem dinamiklerinden ise J-eğrisi etkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 25 (2010)
Issue (Month): 287 ()
Pages: 69-90

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:25:y:2010:i:287:p:69-90
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