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Reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesine etkisi: Türkiye için Marshall-Lerner koşulunun testi


  • Nilgün ÇİL YAVUZ

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi)

  • Burak GÜRİŞ

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi)

  • Burcu KIRAN

    (İstanbul Üniversitesi)


Bu çalışmanın amacı reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesine etkisini araştırarak, Türkiye için Marshall Lerner koşulunun geçerliliğini test etmektir. Bu amaçla eşbütünleşme testi için, son olarak geliştirilen ve otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeli (ARDL) modeline dayalı sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. 1988-2007 arası dönemi kapsayan ve üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı modellerden dış ticaret dengesi ile belirleyicileri- yurt dışı ve yurt içi gelir, reel döviz kuru- arasında uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Tahmin edilen ARDL modelin uzun dönem statik çözümlemesinden Marshall Lerner koşulunun geçerli olmadığı ve hata düzeltme modelinin tahmini ile sağlanan kısa dönem dinamiklerinden ise J-eğrisi etkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Nilgün ÇİL YAVUZ & Burak GÜRİŞ & Burcu KIRAN, 2010. "Reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesine etkisi: Türkiye için Marshall-Lerner koşulunun testi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 25(287), pages 69-90.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:25:y:2010:i:287:p:69-90

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    Cited by:

    1. Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
    2. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.

    More about this item


    Marshall-Lerner koşulu; J-eğrisi; reel döviz kuru; ARDL model sınır testi;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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