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Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey : A Panel Granger Causality Approach under Cross-sectional Dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ

    (Department of Economics, Aydin Adnan Menderes University, Turkey.)

  • Mehmet Hanefi TOPAL

    (Department of Public Finance, Gümüşhane University, Turkey.)

  • Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU

    (Department of Public Finance, Aydin Adnan Menderes University, Turkey.)

Abstract

Twin deficits hypothesis has been one of the most widely-applied phenomenon in the economics literature. In this study, the twin deficits hypothesis was tested for the EU-27 member states and Turkey with the data covering the 2002:Q1-2014:Q1 period. Unlike other studies, the twin deficits hypothesis was tested by using second generation panel causality tests that considered the cross-sectional dependence. According to the findings of this study, which used panel Granger causality tests suggested by Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) and Emirmahmutoğlu-Kose (2011), there is statistically significant bidirectional causality between budget deficit (BD) and current account deficit (CAD) in the relevant period. It was found out a bidirectional causality between BD and CAD in sixteen of the twenty-eight countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Turkey and the UK) and a unidirectional causality from BD to CAD was also noticed in five EU countries (Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia). Nevertheless, the findings indicated that there is a unidirectional causality from CAD to BD in Hungary, Luxembourg and Malta but there is no causality between BD and CAD in Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ & Mehmet Hanefi TOPAL & Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU, 2018. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey : A Panel Granger Causality Approach under Cross-sectional Dependence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 101-119, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:4:p:101-119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficit; current account deficit; twin deficits hypothesis; cross-sectional dependence; panel Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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