IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agd/wpaper/21-093.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Author

Listed:
  • Samson N. Okafor

    (Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria)

  • Chukwunonso Ekesiobi

    (Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Nigeria)

  • Ogonna Ifebi

    (Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Nigeria)

  • Stephen K. Dimnwobi

    (NnamdiAzikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria)

  • Simplice A. Asongu

    (Yaoundé, Cameroon)

Abstract

Aware of the nature of deficits in the current account, fiscal account, and the financial account balances of the countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, this inquiry assessed the relationship between these deficits and the implication of such relationship for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). To do this, the study adopted panel data analysis techniques using the Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) specifications to test for the Triple Deficit Hypothesis (TDH) in the region. The findings of the study revealed the presence of the TDH in SSA where bidirectional causality exists between current account balance and budget balance, and between saving gap and current account balance, with a unidirectional causality running from budget balance to saving gap. The adoption of sound fiscal, monetary, and trade interventions in the region constitutes the major policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Samson N. Okafor & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ogonna Ifebi & Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Testing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/093, African Governance and Development Institute..
    • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Testing-the-Triple-Deficit-Hypothesis-for-Sub-Saharan-Africa.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Chekwube V. Madichie & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Population Dynamics and Environmental Quality in Africa," Working Papers 21/047, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    2. Zelealem Yiheyis, 2013. "Trade Openness and Inflation Performance: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 67-84, March.
    3. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905, August.
    4. Magoti, Edwin & Mabula, Salyungu & Ngong’ho, Sende B, 2020. "Triple Deficit Hypothesis: A Panel ARDL and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality forEast African Countries," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(1), January.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    7. Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş & Fuat Lebe, 2016. "Current Account Deficit, Budget Deficit and Savings Gap: Is the Twin or Triplet Deficit Hypothesis Valid in G7 Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 271-286.
    8. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of man Ullah, volume 36, pages 85-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Merter Akinci & Ömer Yilmaz, 2012. "Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey Bounds Test Approach," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(50), pages 1-28.
    10. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905.
    11. Simon Yannick Fouda Ekobena & Adama Ekberg Coulibaly & Mama Keita & Antonio Pedro, 2021. "Potentials of the African Continental Free Trade Area: A combined partial and general equilibrium modeling assessment for Central Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(3), pages 452-465, September.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    14. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:565:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    16. Rahman Olanrewaju Raji, 2019. "Testing the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Nigeria," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(2), pages 89-109, December.
    17. Daniel Sakyi & José Villaverde & Adolfo Maza & Isaac Bonuedi, 2017. "The Effects of Trade and Trade Facilitation on Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 350-361, June.
    18. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    19. Yvonne Umulisa, 2020. "Estimation of the East African Community's trade benefits from promoting intra‐regional trade," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 55-66, March.
    20. Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla & Abdelrahim M. Yahia, 2014. "Performance of Intra-COMESA Trade Integration: A Comparative Study with ASEAN's Trade Integration," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(S1), pages 77-95, November.
    21. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ & Mehmet Hanefi TOPAL & Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU, 2018. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey : A Panel Granger Causality Approach under Cross-sectional Dependence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 101-119, December.
    22. Chowdhury, Khorshed & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2007. "Testing the Keynesian Proposition of Twin Deficits in the Presence of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Sri Lanka after War: the case of a bridge too far?," Economics Working Papers wp07-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    23. Zelealem Yiheyis, 2013. "Trade Openness and Inflation Performance: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 67-84.
    24. Shruti Shastri & A. K. Giri & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra, 2017. "Assessing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Major South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 292-299.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kingsley I. Okere & Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Favour C. Onuoha, 2023. "Turning the tide on energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: Does Public Debt Matter?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 23/041, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Favour C. Onuoha & Benedict I. Uzoechina & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ebele S. Nwokoye, 2022. "Does Public Capital Expenditure Reduce Energy Poverty? Evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/033, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Favour C. Onuoha & Benedict I. Uzoechina & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ebele S. Nwokoye, 2022. "Does Public Capital Expenditure Reduce Energy Poverty? Evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers 22/033, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Bruno N. Ibekilo & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Precious M. Emmanuel, 2023. "Heterogeneous Assessment of Urbanisation, Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution in Africa: the Role of Regulatory Quality," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 23/056, African Governance and Development Institute..
    5. Bruno Ibekilo & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Precious Muhammed Emmanuel, 2023. "Heterogeneous assessment of urbanisation, energy consumption and environmental pollution in Africa: the role of regulatory quality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4421-4444, December.
    6. Kingsley I. Okere & Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Favour C. Onuoha, 2023. "Turning the tide on energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: Does Public Debt Matter?," Working Papers 23/041, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Onuoha, Favour Chidinma & Dimnwobi, Stephen Kelechi & Okere, Kingsley Ikechukwu & Ekesiobi, Chukwunonso, 2023. "Funding the green transition: Governance quality, public debt, and renewable energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Bruno N. Ibekilo & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Precious M. Emmanuel, 2023. "Heterogeneous Assessment of Urbanisation, Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution in Africa: the Role of Regulatory Quality," Working Papers 23/056, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rahman Olanrewaju Raji, 2019. "Testing the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Nigeria," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(2), pages 89-109, December.
    2. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    3. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Destek, Mehmet Akif & Manga, Muge & Cengiz, Orhan, 2022. "Militarization of NATO Countries Sparks Climate Change? Investigating the Moderating Role of Technological Progress and Financial Development," MPRA Paper 117567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Appiah, Michael & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "Do institutional affiliation affect the renewable energy-growth nexus in the Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a multi-quantitative approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 785-795.
    5. Adel Ben Youssef & Mounir Dahmani, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Digitalization, Tax Revenues, and Energy Resource Capacity on Environmental Quality: Fresh Evidence from CS-ARDL in the EKC Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Bright Akwasi Gyamfi & Asiedu B. Ampomah & Festus V. Bekun & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Can information and communication technology and institutional quality help mitigate climate change in E7 economies? An environmental Kuznets curve extension," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2021. "Renewable electricity and economic growth relationship in the long run: Panel data econometric evidence from the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-341.
    9. Tullio Gregori & Marco Giansoldati, 2023. "Do current and capital account liberalizations affect economic growth in the long run?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 247-273, July.
    10. Khan, Zeeshan & Haouas, Ilham & Trinh, Hai Hong & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Zhang, Changyong, 2023. "Financial inclusion and energy poverty nexus in the era of globalization: Role of composite risk index and energy investment in emerging economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 382-399.
    11. Panait, Mirela & Apostu, Simona Andreea & Vasile, Valentina & Vasile, Razvan, 2022. "Is energy efficiency a robust driver for the new normal development model? A Granger causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    12. Muhammad Shafiullah & Luke Emeka Okafor & Usman Khalid, 2019. "Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 274-296, March.
    13. Engy Raouf, 2020. "A Non-Linear Autoreggresive Distributed Lag Analysis of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in the Mena Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 895-905, August.
    14. Doğan, Buhari & Ghosh, Sudeshna & Hoang, Dung Phuong & Chu, Lan Khanh, 2022. "Are economic complexity and eco-innovation mutually exclusive to control energy demand and environmental quality in E7 and G7 countries?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Huang, Zhilin & Zhang, Hong & Duan, Hongbo, 2020. "How will globalization contribute to reduce energy consumption?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    16. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.
    17. Ahakwa, Isaac & Xu, Yi & Tackie, Evelyn Agba & Odai, Leslie Afotey & Sarpong, Francis Atta & Korankye, Benard & Ofori, Elvis Kwame, 2023. "Do natural resources and green technological innovation matter in addressing environmental degradation? Evidence from panel models robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    18. Mounir Dahmani & Mohamed Mabrouki & Adel Ben Youssef, 2021. "The ICT, Financial Development, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in MENA Countries: Panel CS-ARDL Evidence," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-46, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    19. Dobdinga Cletus Fonchamnyo & Ongo Nkoa Bruno Emmanuel & Gildas Dohba Dinga, 2021. "The effects of trade, foreign direct investment, and economic growth on environmental quality and overshoot: a dynamic common correlation effects approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-27, October.
    20. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2020. "Why Young Adults Retreat from Marriage? An Easterlin Relative Income Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2020_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Triple Deficit Hypothesis; Sub-Saharan Africa; African Continental Free Trade Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Asongu Simplice (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agdiycm.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.