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Current Account Deficit, Budget Deficit and Savings Gap: Is the Twin or Triplet Deficit Hypothesis Valid in G7 Countries?

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  • Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş
  • Fuat Lebe

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the validity of the triplet deficit hypothesis, which means the savings gap and budget deficit effect on the current account deficit. The empirical model is estimated for the G7 countries during the period between 1994 and 2011. The findings show that budget deficit and savings gap have important role in current account deficit in terms of estimator results. Moreover, bi-directional causality between the current account deficit and the savings gap and between the budget deficit and the savings gap are determined. So, especially the savings gap has an important effect on the current account deficit and the budget deficit. That is, triplet deficit hypothesis is valid in G7. Moreover, traditional approach is also valid since the causality is found between the current account deficit and budget deficit. Thereby, the authors conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analysing the nature of relationship among the current account deficit, the budget deficit, and the savings gap may play a key role for policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş & Fuat Lebe, 2016. "Current Account Deficit, Budget Deficit and Savings Gap: Is the Twin or Triplet Deficit Hypothesis Valid in G7 Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 271-286.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2016:y:2016:i:3:id:565:p:271-286
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.565
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    Cited by:

    1. Samson Nonso Okafor & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ogonna Ifebi & Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Testing the triple deficit hypothesis for sub‐Saharan Africa: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 142-153, March.
    2. Deimante Blavasciunaite & Lina Garsviene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2020. "Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Naape, Baneng, 2019. "Is the Co-Movement Between Budget Deficit and Current Account Deficit Applicable to South Africa?," MPRA Paper 97962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Nov 2019.
    4. Brito Romero, Marycris & Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2020. "¿Hay evidencias de déficits gemelos en la economía dominicana? [Is there evidence of twin deficits in the Dominican economy?]," MPRA Paper 100938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Panait, Mirela & Apostu, Simona Andreea & Vasile, Valentina & Vasile, Razvan, 2022. "Is energy efficiency a robust driver for the new normal development model? A Granger causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Shruti Shastri & A. K. Giri & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra, 2017. "Assessing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Major South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 292-299.
    7. Rahman Olanrewaju Raji, 2019. "Testing the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Nigeria," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(2), pages 89-109, December.
    8. Abdul Hakim & Jaka Sriyana, 2020. "Risk Threshold for Sustainable Current Account Balance of Payments: An Indonesian Case," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(7), pages 778-789, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    triplet deficit hypothesis; savings gap; panel dynamic SUR; current account deficit; budget deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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