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An empirical analysis of nonstationarity in a panel of interest rates with factors


  • Benoit Perron

    (Département de sciences économiques, CIREQ and CIRANO, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada)

  • Hyungsik Roger Moon

    (Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA)


This paper studies nonstationarities in a panel of Canadian and US interest rates of different maturities and risk. We focus on methods which model the cross-sectional dependence within the panel as a linear dynamic factor model, and decompose our data into common and idiosyncratic components that we analyze in turn. Our results suggest the presence of a single nonstationary factor in our panel. Since some of the idiosyncratic components are stationary, we conclude that these series are cointegrated. Finally, the dominant factors can be interpreted as level and slope factors as in the term structure literature. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoit Perron & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2007. "An empirical analysis of nonstationarity in a panel of interest rates with factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 383-400.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:2:p:383-400
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.931

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Incidental trends and the power of panel unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 416-459, December.
    2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    3. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
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    8. Timothy K. Chue & In Choi, 2007. "Subsampling hypothesis tests for nonstationary panels with applications to exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 233-264.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2009. "Stochastic volatility," Working Paper Series WP-09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    12. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    13. Luciano Gutierrez, 2006. "Panel Unit-root Tests for Cross-sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 519-540, August.
    14. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
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    16. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2013. "Nominal interest rates and stationarity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 741-745, May.
    2. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    3. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Georgi MARINOV, 2016. "Small Sample Properties Of Panel Cointegration Tests In The Presence Of Structural Change," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 35-41, JULY.
    5. Kula Ferit & Aslan Alper, 2010. "Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment: One, the Other, or Both?," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 5(1), pages 91-94, April.
    6. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "On The Role Of Public Policies And Wage Formation For Private Investment In R&D: A Long-Run Panel Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/911, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Incidental trends and the power of panel unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 416-459, December.
    8. Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks, and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 948-963, November.
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2012. "Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 183-192.
    10. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Claude Lopez, 2009. "A Panel Unit Root Test with Good Power in Small Samples," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 295-313.
    12. Bianco, Dominique & Niang, Abdou-Aziz, 2012. "On international spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 280-282.
    13. Alejandro C. García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2016. "The economic integration of Spain: a change in the inflation pattern," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, December.
    14. Moon, H.R. & Perron, B., 2012. "Beyond panel unit root tests: Using multiple testing to determine the nonstationarity properties of individual series in a panel," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 29-33.
    15. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland," Working Papers 2013-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    16. Gerdie Everaert & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "Fiscal policy and TFP in the OECD: measuring direct and indirect effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 605-640, September.
    17. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2013. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure with permanent-transitory component models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3192-3203.
    18. Ding, Hui & Kim, Jaebeom, 2017. "Inflation-targeting and real interest rate parity: A bias correction approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 132-137.

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