An Empirical Investigation of Budget and Trade Deficits: The Case of Bangladesh
This study attempts to investigate the evidence of twin deficits hypothesis, that is, the simultaneous existence of fiscal and foreign trade account deficits in Bangladesh. In this regard this paper examines the causal relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit based on annual time series data from 1972-73 to 2011-12 fiscal year. Applying the VAR and Granger Causality after successfully running ADF and PP unit root test and cointegration rank test this paper reveals that budget deficit Granger cause trade deficit and vice versa but the relationship does not stand for the long-run dynamics. In fact, the long run relationship depends on overall macroeconomic environment and performances of other relevant variables. Policy implication is that Government should reduce budget deficit to improve the trade account balance.
Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econjournals.com|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Sylvia KAUFMANN & Johann SCHARLER & Georg WINCKLER, 1999.
"The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?,"
Vienna Economics Papers
vie9903, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
- Sylvia Kaufmann & Georg Winckler & Johann Scharler, 2002. "The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 529-542.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
- Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Tom Doan, . "POTESTRESIDS: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration on 1st stage residuals," Statistical Software Components RTS00248, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Tom Doan, . "POTEST: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00247, Boston College Department of Economics.
- William G. Dewald & Michael Ulan, 1990. "The Twin-Deficit Illusion," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 689-707, Winter.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Abell, John D., 1990. "Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 81-96.
- Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2013-03-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.