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An Empirical Investigation of Budget and Trade Deficits: The Case of Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Asrafuzzaman

    (Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh)

  • Amit Roy

    (Graduate Student, Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh)

  • Sanat Das Gupta

    (Graduate Student, Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh)

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate the evidence of twin deficits hypothesis, that is, the simultaneous existence of fiscal and foreign trade account deficits in Bangladesh. In this regard this paper examines the causal relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit based on annual time series data from 1972-73 to 2011-12 fiscal year. Applying the VAR and Granger Causality after successfully running ADF and PP unit root test and cointegration rank test this paper reveals that budget deficit Granger cause trade deficit and vice versa but the relationship does not stand for the long-run dynamics. In fact, the long run relationship depends on overall macroeconomic environment and performances of other relevant variables. Policy implication is that Government should reduce budget deficit to improve the trade account balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Asrafuzzaman & Amit Roy & Sanat Das Gupta, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of Budget and Trade Deficits: The Case of Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 570-579.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2013-03-2
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sylvia Kaufmann & Georg Winckler & Johann Scharler, 2002. "The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 529-542.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    7. Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
    11. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    12. Abell, John D., 1990. "Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 81-96.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mumtaz, Kinza & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Dynamics of Twin Deficits in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 74592, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin deficits; Bangladesh; Budget deficit; Trade deficit; Granger causality; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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