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Bütçe Açıklarının Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Etkileri: İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye Açısından Değerlendirilmesi

Author

Listed:
  • Metin BAYRAK

    (Ataturk University)

  • Ömer ESEN

    (Ataturk University)

Abstract

İkiz açıkların oluşma sürecini açıklayan genel olarak iki farklı görüş bulunmaktadır. “İkiz Açık Hipotezini” açıklamaya çalışan yaklaşımlardan ilki “Geleneksel Keynesyen Yaklaşımı”, diğeri ise “Ricardian Denkliği Yaklaşımı” dır. Geleneksel Keynesyen öngörü, bütçe açıklarının cari işlem açıklarına yol açacağını ileri sürerken, Ricardian denkliği hipotezi de bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasında her hangi bir ilişkinin olmadığını iddia eder. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bütçe dengesi ile cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişki, 1975 ile 2010 dönemi arasında yıllık veriler kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Ele alınan değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğünü araştırmak üzere Johansen eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik sonuçlara göre, inceleme dönemi için, bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasında kısa ve uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, Geleneksel Keynesyen Yaklaşımı destekler ve Ricardian Denkliği Yaklaşımı reddeder yöndedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Metin BAYRAK & Ömer ESEN, 2012. "Bütçe Açıklarının Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerine Etkileri: İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye Açısından Değerlendirilmesi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 23(82), pages 23-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:23:y:2012:i:82:p:23-49
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.20001
    Note: [English Title] Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey [English Abstract] There are generally two different views that explain development process of Twin deficits. The first approach that tries to explain “Twin Deficits Hypothesis” is Conventional Keynesian Approach and the other one is Ricardian Equivalence Approach. While the Conventional Keynesian proposition claims that budget deficits led to current account deficits, on the other hand the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis claims that there is no relationship between the budget deficits and current account deficits. In this paper the relationship between foreign trade balance and current account balance is researched by using annual data for 1975 and 2010 periods in Turkey. In order to search the direction and size of the association between analyzed variables, Johansen cointegration and error correction model have been employed. The empirical findings of the study reveal that for the concerning period, it is found that there is a relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits in both the short and long run. These results support the Conventional Keynesian Theory and refuse the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis. [English Keywords] Twin Deficits, Current Account Balance, Budget Balance, Cointegration Analysis, Error Correction Model.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.
    2. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ & Mehmet Hanefi TOPAL & Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU, 2018. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey : A Panel Granger Causality Approach under Cross-sectional Dependence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 101-119, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    İkiz Açıklar; Cari İşlem Dengesi; Bütçe Dengesi; Eşbütünleşme Analizi; Hata Düzeltme Modeli.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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