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Twin Crises in Turkey: A Comparison of Currency Crisis Models

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

This paper analyzes the twin crises in Turkey experienced in 2000 and 2001. After a detailed survey of currency crisis models, together with a brief descriptive overview of the crises in Turkey, the similarities among the twin crises in Turkey and the models that have been developed to explain preceding crises in the world are investigated. It is found that the Turkish twin crises cannot be explained by using any individual generation of models, namely first generation models, second generation models or third generation models. Instead, a combination of these models is more appropriate to explain the details of the twin crises.

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Article provided by Cattaneo University (LIUC) in its journal The European Journal of Comparative Economics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 107-124

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Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:107-124
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  1. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Leila Ali & Yan Kestens, 2006. "Contagion and Crises Clusters: Toward a Regional Warning System?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 814-839, December.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  11. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises ; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  12. repec:bil:bilpap:971 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Ercan Uygur, 2001. "Krizden Krize Türkiye: 2000 Kasým ve 2001 Þubat Krizleri," Working Papers 2001/1, Turkish Economic Association, revised Apr 2001.
  14. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
  15. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
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