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Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets

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  • Jansen, Dennis W.
  • Tsai, Chun-Li

Abstract

We examine asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy surprises on stock returns between bull and bear markets in the period 1994 to 2005. We ask how these impacts respond to the relative ability of firms to obtain external finance. We find that the impact of a surprise monetary policy in a bear market is large, negative, and statistically significant, and this holds across size decile portfolios. The impact of a surprise policy action in a bear market for most industries is significantly greater than the impact of surprise monetary policy in a bull market. Controlling for the capacity for external finance, stock returns of firms in bear states respond more than firms in bull states. Capacity for external finance is more important in a bear market, as it partially mitigates the larger impact of monetary policy in a bear market.

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  • Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:5:p:981-990
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 915-934.
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    5. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2014. "The effects of monetary policy on stock returns: Financing constraints and “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC statements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 273-290.
    6. Assefa, Tibebe A. & Esqueda, Omar A. & Mollick, André Varella, 2017. "Stock returns and interest rates around the World: A panel data approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, pages 20-35.
    7. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    8. repec:eee:ecolet:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:54-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    10. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:171-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tang, Yong & Luo, Yong & Xiong, Jie & Zhao, Fei & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2013. "Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4435-4449.
    12. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis alter equilibrium adjustment dynamics between the US federal fund fund rates and stock price volatility in the SSA region?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 778-788.
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    14. Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Peng, Chi-Lu & Chen, Ming-Chi & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Wealth effects on the housing markets: Do market liquidity and market states matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 488-495.
    15. Jean-Yves Filbien & Fabien Labondance, 2012. "Reactions Des Marches D’Actions De La Zone Euro Aux Annonces Non Anticipees De La Bce," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(2), pages 179-204.
    16. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Acuña, Andres A. & Pinto, Cristian F., 2012. "Respuesta del retorno accionario a la politica monetaria: Evidencia para el mercado chileno
      [Stock return response to monetary policy: Evidence from the Chilean market]
      ," MPRA Paper 41091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    20. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis alter equilibrium adjustment dynamics between the US Fed rates and stock price volatility in the SSA region?," MPRA Paper 69976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 497-510.
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    23. Hsu, Kuang-Chung & Chiang, Hui-Chu, 2011. "Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 339-349.
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    25. WANG, Kent & WANG, Shin-Huei & PAN, Zheyao, 2013. "Can federal reserve policy deviation explain response patterns of financial markets over time?," CORE Discussion Papers 2013029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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