IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v51y2011i4p339-349.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model

Author

Listed:
  • Hsu, Kuang-Chung
  • Chiang, Hui-Chu

Abstract

This paper employs smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to investigate the nonlinear effect of monetary policy on stock returns. The change in the Federal funds rate is used as an endogenous measure of monetary policy, and the growth rate of industrial production is also considered in the model. Our results show that the relationship between the monetary policy and excess returns on stock prices is positive and nonlinear. A decrease in the Federal funds rate causes a larger increase in excess returns if excess stock returns are located in the extreme low excess returns regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Kuang-Chung & Chiang, Hui-Chu, 2011. "Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 339-349.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:4:p:339-349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2011.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976911000482
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2011.08.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
    3. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2007. "Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1429-1460, 2007 12.
    7. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    8. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    11. Dmitry Livdan & Horacio Sapriza & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Financially Constrained Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1827-1862, August.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    13. Mullins, Mark & Wadhwani, Sushil B., 1989. "The effect of the stock market on investment: a comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 939-956, May.
    14. Rogalski, Richard J & Vinso, Joseph D, 1977. "Stock Returns, Money Supply and the Direction of Causality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1017-1030, September.
    15. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    16. Chuliá, Helena & Martens, Martin & Dijk, Dick van, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns, volatilities and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 834-839, April.
    17. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
    19. Homa, Kenneth E & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1971. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1045-1066, December.
    20. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    21. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 667-688, March.
    22. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    23. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    24. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
    25. Whited, Toni M, 1992. "Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    26. Pesando, James E, 1974. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices: Further Observations on the Econometric Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 909-921, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
    2. Chang, Bi-Juan & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2021. "Corporate debt and cash decisions: A nonlinear panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 15-37.
    3. Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel & Slim, Skander, 2021. "Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and, monetary policy shocks matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 676-699.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel & Slim, Skander, 2021. "Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and, monetary policy shocks matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 676-699.
    2. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
    3. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    5. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    6. Sashikanta Khuntia & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2019. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Some Further Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 801-827, December.
    7. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    8. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    9. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2013. "The high-frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-176.
    10. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    11. Victoria Atanasov, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross‐section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 23-32, September.
    12. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
    13. Niko Hauzenberger & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Bayesian State‐Space Modeling for Analyzing Heterogeneous Network Effects of US Monetary Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(4), pages 1261-1291, October.
    14. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    15. Atanasov, Victoria, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross-section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-32.
    16. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Zaidi, Mohd Azlan Shah & Karim, Bakri, 2011. "Does Firm-Level Equity Return Respond to Domestic and International Monetary Policy Shocks? A Panel Data Study of Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 45, pages 21-31.
    17. Florackis, Chris & Kostakis, Alexandros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    18. Gagan Deep Sharma & Mandeep Mahendru & Mrinalini Srivastava, 2019. "Can Central Banking Policies Make a Difference in Financial Market Performance in Emerging Economies? The Case of India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, May.
    19. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Techarongrojwong, Yaowaluk, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy decisions on stock returns: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 487-507.
    20. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Stock returns; STAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:4:p:339-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.