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Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †

Author

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  • Stan du Plessis
  • Ben Smit
  • Federico Sturzenegger

Abstract

This paper uses a structural VAR methodology to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks to real output for the South African economy. Demand shocks, in turn, are separated into fiscal and monetary shocks. The model is estimated with quarterly data over two overlapping samples: 1960Q2--2006Q4 and 1983Q4--2006Q4. The identified (structural) shocks were used in a historical decomposition to split output into a measure of potential output (resulting from the evolution of supply shocks) and a measure of the business cycle (the gap between actual and potential output). This measure of potential output suggests a significant decline relative to trend in the years prior to the political transition of 1994 and a swift reversal thereafter. The paper presents evidence from three sources to support its identification of aggregate supply and demand shocks. These sources are the following: theory consistent impulse response functions; a close match between the implied measure of the business cycle and independent information about the South African business cycle and a demonstration of the close match between the identified series of aggregate supply shocks and important historical events in the decades prior to and following 1994 that have been identified by economic historians as important shocks to the South African economy. Copyright 2008 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:765-793
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejn005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben Smit & Le Roux Burrows, 2002. "Estimating potential output and output gaps for the South African economy," Working Papers 05/2002, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    2. Dupasquier, Chantal & Guay, Alain & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "A Survey of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-595, July.
    3. du Plessis, S.A., 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-774, September.
    4. J. Geldenhuys & M. Marinkov, 2007. "Robust Estimates of Okun's Coefficient for South Africa," Working Papers 55, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 639-677, October.
    6. P. Burger & M. Marinkov, 2006. "The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable Is The Gordon Model?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 172-189, June.
    7. J.W. Fedderke & E. Schaling, 2005. "Modelling Inflation In South Africa: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 79-92, March.
    8. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 629-641, December.
    9. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working papers 2012-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. Johannes Hermanus Kemp, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 549-568, December.
    3. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    4. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "The Role Of The Exchange Rate In A New Keynesian Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 170-191, June.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 639-677, October.
    6. Ellyne, Mark & Veller, Carl, 2011. "What is the SARB's inflation targeting policy, and is it appropriate?," MPRA Paper 42134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    8. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:2:p:161-177 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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