A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment
As part of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank has formulated a reference value for M3 growth. A pre-requisite for the use of a reference value for M3 growth is the existence of a stable demand function for that aggregate. However, a large empirical literature has emerged showing that, beginning in 2001, essentially all euro area M3 demand functions have exhibited instability. This paper considers euroarea money demand in the context of the portfolio-balance framework. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used until now to estimate euro area money-demand are not well-specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies - - a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction (VEC) approach and a time-varying coefficient (TVC) approach - - we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. The upshot of our findings is that M3 behaviour continues to provide useful information about medium-term developments on inflation.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
- Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-251, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006.
"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation,"
34, Bank of Greece.
- P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
- Swamy, P A V B & Tavlas, George S, 1995.
" Random Coefficient Models: Theory and Applications,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 165-196, June.
- P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1993. "Random coefficient models: theory and applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1999.
"Long-Run Structural Modelling,"
ESE Discussion Papers
44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Pratt, John W. & Schlaifer, Robert, 1988. "On the interpretation and observation of laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 23-52.
- Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
- Zellner, Arnold, 2007. "Philosophy and objectives of econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 331-339, February.
- Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand; Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
- David Cobham, 1996. "Causes and Effects of the European Monetary Crises of 1992-93," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 585-604, December.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.