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Reconsidering the welfare cost of inflation in the US: a nonparametric estimation of the nonlinear long-run money-demand equation using projection pursuit regressions

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  • Rangan Gupta
  • Anandamayee Majumdar

Abstract

This paper, first, estimates the appropriate, log–log or semi-log, linear long-run money-demand relationship capturing the behavior US money demand over the period of 1980:Q1–2010:Q4, using the standard linear cointegration procedures found in the literature, and the corresponding nonparametric version of the same based on projection pursuit regression (PPR) methods. We then, compare the resulting welfare costs of inflation obtained from the linear and nonlinear money-demand cointegrating equations. We make the following observations: (i) the appropriate money-demand relationship for the period of 1980:Q1–2010:Q4 is captured by a semi-log function; (ii) based on the estimation of semi-log cointegrating equations, the welfare cost of inflation was found to at the most lie between 0.0131 % of GDP and 0.2186 % of GDP for inflation rates between 0 and 10 %, and; (iii) in comparison, the welfare cost of inflation obtained from the semi-log non-linear long-run money-demand function, derived using the PPR method, for 0–10 % of inflation ranges between 0.4930 and 1.9468 % of GDP. However, the standard errors associated with the welfare cost estimates obtained from PPR relative to the linear models tend to indicate that the nonlinear money demand provides more precise estimates of the welfare costs primarily for higher rates of inflation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2014. "Reconsidering the welfare cost of inflation in the US: a nonparametric estimation of the nonlinear long-run money-demand equation using projection pursuit regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1221-1240, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:4:p:1221-1240
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0721-6
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    2. Lucas, Robert E., 1981. "Discussion of : Stanley Fischer, "towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II"," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 43-52, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, Stephen M. & Martins, Luis Filipe & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 775-797, March.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Matteo Mogliani & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "On the Instability of Long‐Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1645-1660, October.
    4. Dong Liu & Chunlei Liu & Qiang Fu & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Imran Khan & Song Cui & Muhammad Abrar Faiz, 2018. "Projection Pursuit Evaluation Model of Regional Surface Water Environment Based on Improved Chicken Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1325-1342, March.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Jordi Sardà & Bernd Theilen, 2016. "Money demand and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1627-1645, June.
    6. Wang, Qiang & Zhan, Lina, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of the shale gas industry by combining DPSIRM model and RAGA-PP techniques: An empirical analysis of Sichuan and Chongqing, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 353-364.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Money demand; Projection pursuit regression; Welfare cost of inflation; E31; E41; E52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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