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The Growth-Inflation Nexus for the US over 1801-2013: A Semiparametric Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10, Turkey)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Charl Jooste

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

We try and detect whether there exists a threshold level of inflation for the US economy over 1801-2013, beyond which it has a negative effect on economic growth. We use a combination of nonparametric (NP) and instrumental variable semiparametric (SNP-IV) methods to obtain inflation thresholds for the United States. The results suggest that the relationship between growth and inflation is hump shaped—that higher levels of inflation reduce growth more. Our results consistently show that inflation above two per cent negatively affects growth.

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File URL: http://repec.economics.emu.edu.tr/RePEc/emu/wpaper/15-17.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 15-17.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-17.pdf
Contact details of provider: Phone: 90 (392) 630-1291
Fax: 90 (392) 365-1017
Web page: http://economics.emu.edu.tr/

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  1. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
  2. Stephen M. Miller & Luis F. Martins & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "A Time-Varying Approach of the US Welfare Cost of Inflation," Working Papers 201419, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  4. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
  5. Vaona, A. & Schiavo, S., 2007. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 452-458, March.
  6. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 275-301, April.
  7. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
  8. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
  9. Qi Li & Juan Lin & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2013. "Optimal Bandwidth Selection for Nonparametric Conditional Distribution and Quantile Functions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 57-65, January.
  10. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
  11. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
  12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-474 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Park, Sangin, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 381-399, February.
  14. Vaona, Andrea, 2012. "Inflation And Growth In The Long Run: A New Keynesian Theory And Further Semiparametric Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 94-132, February.
  15. Serletis, Apostolos & Yavari, Kazem, 2004. "The welfare cost of inflation in Canada and the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 199-204, August.
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