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Inflation and Growth: New Evidence From a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis

  • Stephanie Kremer
  • Alexander Bick
  • Dieter Nautz

We introduce a dynamic panel threshold model to shed new light on the impact of inflation on long-term economic growth. The empirical analysis is based on a large panel-data set including 124 countries during the period from 1950 to 2004. For industrialized countries, our results confirm the inflation targets of about 2% set by many central banks. For non-industrialized countries, we estimate that inflation hampers growth if it exceeds 17%. Below this threshold, however, the impact of inflation on growth remains insignificant. Therefore, our results do not support growth-enhancing effects of inflation in developing countries.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2009-036.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-036.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-036
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  1. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
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  7. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
  8. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  9. Andrea Vaona & Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth," Department of Economics Working Papers 0520, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  10. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
  11. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
  12. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
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  14. repec:chb:bcchwp:03 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
  16. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
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  18. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Arthur T. Denzau & Manfred W. Keil & Thitithep Sitthiyot & Thomas D. Willett, . "When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-22, Claremont Colleges.
  19. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. " Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September.
  20. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. David R. Hineline, 2007. "Examining the Robustness of the Inflation and Growth Relationship," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1020–1037, April.
  22. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  23. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
  24. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
  25. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 813-843, October.
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