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U.S. Money Demand Instability: A Flexible Least Squares Approach

Author

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  • TESFATSION, L.
  • VEITCH, J.

Abstract

This study uses the Flexible Least Squares method for Time-Varying Linear Regression (FLS-TVLR) to investigate coefficient stability for the Goldfeld U.S. money demand model over the volatile period 1959:Q2 to 1985:Q3. The only constraint imposed on coefficient variation over time is a smoothness prior. Nevertheless, the time paths traced out by the FLS-TVLR coefficient estimates exhibit systematic idiosyncratic time variations as well as simultaneous shift movements in 1974 during the time of the first oil price shock. Moreover, the FLS-TVLR estimates also indicate that the "unit root" nonstationarity problem reported by OLS money demand studies disappears if the coefficients are allowed to exhibit even small amounts of time variation. Annotated pointers to related work can be accessed here: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/flshome.htm
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Tesfatsion, L. & Veitch, J., 1988. "U.S. Money Demand Instability: A Flexible Least Squares Approach," Papers m8809, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:socaec:m8809
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen M. Miller & Luis F. Martins & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "A Time-Varying Approach of the US Welfare Cost of Inflation," Working Papers 201419, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Kim, Man-Keun & Lee, Andrew C., 2005. "Time Varying Coefficient: An Application of Flexible Least Squares to Cattle Captive Supply," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19124, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kalaba, Robert & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1996. "A multicriteria approach to model specification and estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 193-214, February.
    5. He, Ling T., 2005. "Instability and predictability of factor betas of industrial stocks: The Flexible Least Squares solutions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 619-640, September.
    6. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Denis Peguin & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2009. "The "distance-varying" gravity model in international economics: is the distance an obstacle to trade?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1139-1155.
    7. Ling T. He, & James. R. Webb & Neil Myer, 2003. "Interest Rate Sensitivities of REIT Returns," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21.
    8. Poray, Michael C. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2000. "Measuring An Almost Ideal Demand System With Generalized Flexible Least Squares," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21796, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Josipa VIŠIC & Blanka ŠKRABIC, "undated". "Determinants of Incoming Cross-Border M&A: Evidence from European Transition Economies," EcoMod2010 259600168, EcoMod.
    10. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Foster, Kenneth A., 1991. "Estimating Productivity Changes With Flexible Coeficients," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(02), December.
    11. Markus Ebner & Thorsten Neumann, 2005. "Time-Varying Betas of German Stock Returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(1), pages 29-46, June.
    12. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2014. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Discussion Papers 24/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Ling He & Alan Reichert, 2003. "Time variation paths of factors affecting financial institutions and stock returns," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 71-86, March.
    14. Kuethe, Todd H. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2008. "A Spatial Hedonic Model with Time-Varying Parameters: A New Method Using Flexible Least Squares," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6306, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. He, Ling T., 2001. "Time variation paths of international transmission of stock volatility -- US vs. Hong Kong and South Korea," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 79-93.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometrics ; monetary theory ; demand;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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