IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmwp/89164.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded

Author

Listed:
  • Han Gao

    ()

  • Mariano Kulish
  • Juan Pablo Nicolini

Abstract

In this paper, we review the relationship between inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and rates of growth of monetary aggregates for a large group of OECD countries. We conclude that the low-frequency behavior of these series maintains a close relationship, as predicted by standard quantity theory models. In an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to alternative frictions that can deliver very different high-frequency dynamics. We argue that these relationships are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Gao & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2020. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded," Working Papers 774, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:89164
    DOI: 10.21034/wp.774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/wp/wp774.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    3. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2017. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 255-274, March.
    4. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    5. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel M., 2017. "Unprecedented changes in the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 351-367.
    6. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (II): Distribution," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 2, number mill1848-2.
    7. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    8. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    9. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    10. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
    11. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (III): Exchange," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 3, number mill1848-3.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    13. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    14. Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2015. "On the stability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-65.
    15. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-128, February.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    17. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (V): On the Influence of Government," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 5, number mill1848-5.
    18. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2019. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles," CAMA Working Papers 2019-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796-796.
    20. Mill, John Stuart, 1848. "Principles of Political Economy (I): Production," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, volume 1, number mill1848-1.
    21. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    2. Luca Benati & Juan-Pablo Nicolini, 2019. "The Welfare Costs of Inflation," Diskussionsschriften dp1911, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Stephen Miller, 2016. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Papers hal-01348842, HAL.
    4. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    5. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & PÉPIN, Dominique & MILLER, Stephen M., 2019. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to central and eastern European countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-45.
    6. Ian Keay, 2019. "Protection for maturing industries: Evidence from Canadian trade patterns and trade policy, 1870–1913," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 1464-1496, November.
    7. Jacobsen, Catrine & Piovesan, Marco, 2016. "Tax me if you can: An artifactual field experiment on dishonesty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 7-14.
    8. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Alexiou, Constantinos & Parthenidis, Thanasis, 2015. "Revisiting profit persistence and the stock market in Japan," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 10-24.
    9. Ian Moffatt, 2013. "Measuring sustainable development," Chapters, in: M. A. Quaddus & M. A.B. Siddique (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development Planning, chapter 3, pages 39-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    11. F. Canova & F. Ferroni & C. Matthes, 2015. "Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures," Working papers 578, Banque de France.
    12. Simone Pellegrino & Guido Perboli & Giovanni Squillero, 2019. "Balancing the equity-efficiency trade-off in personal income taxation: an evolutionary approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 37-64, April.
    13. Jerry Kirkpatrick, 2004. "Reisman's Net Consumption, Net Investment Theory of Aggregate Profit," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 627-646, July.
    14. Stefano Zamagni & Vera Zamagni, 2010. "Cooperative Enterprise," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13842.
    15. Yongzheng Liu & Haibo Feng, 2015. "Tax structure and corruption: cross-country evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 57-78, January.
    16. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Leeson, Peter T., 2007. "Better off stateless: Somalia before and after government collapse," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 689-710, December.
    18. Wu, Yiyun & Zhu, Xiwei & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2019. "The determinants and effectiveness of industrial policy in china: A study based on Five-Year Plans," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 225-242.
    19. Weinzierl, Matthew, 2014. "The promise of positive optimal taxation: normative diversity and a role for equal sacrifice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 128-142.
    20. Alessandro De Matteis, 2019. "Decomposing the anthropogenic causes of climate change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 165-179, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Monetary aggregates; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:89164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.