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Money Velocity and the Natural Rate of Interest

Author

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  • Luca Benati

Abstract

Since World War I, M1 velocity has been, to a close approximation, the permanent component of the short-term nominal rate. This logically implies that, under monetary regimes which cause inflation to be I(0), permanent fluctuations in M1 velocity uniquely reflect, to a close approximation, permanent shifts in the natural rate of interest. Evidence from the Euro area and several inflation-targeting countries is compatible with this notion, with velocity fluctuations being systematically strongly correlated with a Stock and Watson (1996, 1998) estimate of trend real GDP growth. I exploit this insight to estimate the natural rate of interest for the United Kingdom and Canada under inflation targeting: In either country, the natural rate has been consistently declining since the early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Benati, 2017. "Money Velocity and the Natural Rate of Interest," Diskussionsschriften dp1706, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1706
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    2. Olajide O. Oyadeyi, 2025. "The Velocity of Money and Lessons for Monetary Policy in Nigeria: An Application of the Quantile ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 8249-8285, June.
    3. Stewart, Kenneth G., 2024. "The simple macroeconometrics of the quantity theory and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Michael Ellington, 2022. "The Empirical Relevance of the Shadow Rate and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1605-1635, September.
    5. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 1961-2000, December.
    6. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    7. Garabedian, Garo, 2025. "Star-struck; Monetary Policy and the Neutral Rate," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Juan E. Castañeda & José Luis Cendejas, 2024. "Money Growth, Money Velocity and Inflation in the US, 1948–2021," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 999-1014, November.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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