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Dynamic IS curves with and without money: An international comparison

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Listed author(s):
  • Hafer, R.W.
  • Jones, Garett

Abstract

When money is added to a dynamic IS model, evidence from six countries indicates that money growth usually helps predict the GDP gap and that the predictive power of a short-term real interest is much weaker than previous work suggests. Thus, for dynamic IS models such as that used by Rudebusch, G.D., Svensson, L.E.O. [1999. Policy rules and inflation targeting. In: Taylor, J.B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 203-246; 2002. Eurosystem monetary targeting: lessons from US data. European Economic Review 46, 417-442], the omission of money appears to come at a high cost.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 609-616

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:4:p:609-616
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  2. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
  3. Edward Nelson, 2004. "Money and the Transmission Mechanism in the Optimizing IS-LM Specification," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 271-304, Supplemen.
  4. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-239, March.
  5. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  7. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
  8. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
  9. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "Sterilization and Monetary Control: Concepts, Issues, and a Reduced-Form Test," NBER Chapters,in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 291-313 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
  11. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Daniel M. Laskar, 1983. "Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy under a Pegged Exchange-Rates System: An Econometric Approach," NBER Chapters,in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 314-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
  14. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
  15. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
  16. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
  17. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
  18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 258-262, May.
  19. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis in models without money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 145-164.
  20. Brückner, Matthias & Schabert, Andreas, 2002. "Does broad money matter for interest rate policy?," ZEI Working Papers B 15-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
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Cited by:

  1. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2010. "Commodity prices, money and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 331-345, July.
  2. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Barry E. Jones & Jane M. Binner & Andrew W. Mullineux, 2010. "Household-Sector Money Demand For The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 90-113, 09.
  3. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  4. Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Fisher's Relation and the Term Structure: Implications for IS Curves," MPRA Paper 55553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
  6. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2016. "Dynamics of interest and inflation rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 129-144.
  7. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Nguyen, Chau N., 2017. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the IS puzzle," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  8. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.

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