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Direct effects of money on aggregate demand: another look at the evidence

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  • Mariano Kulish
  • Stephen Elias

Abstract

Now that a number of central banks are faced with short-term nominal interest rates close to or at the zero lower bound, there is a renewed interest in the long-running debate about whether or not changes in the stock of money have direct effects. In particular, do changes in money have additional effects on aggregate demand outside of those induced by changes in short-term nominal interest rates? This article revisits and reinterprets the empirical evidence based on single equation regressions which is quite mixed, with some results supporting and other results denying the existence of direct effects. We use a structural model with no direct effects of money to show that the finding of positive and statistically significant coefficients on real money growth can be misleading. The model generates data that, when used to estimate analogues of the empirical regressions, produce positive and statistically significant coefficients on real money growth, similar to those often found when using actual data. The problem is that single equation regressions leave out a set of variables, which in turn, give rise to an omitted variables bias in the estimated coefficients on real money growth. Hence, they are an unreliable guide to calibrate monetary policies, in general, including at the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariano Kulish & Stephen Elias, 2013. "Direct effects of money on aggregate demand: another look at the evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3801-3809, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:27:p:3801-3809
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.718067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evan F. Koenig, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425.
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    6. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    8. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
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    10. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Borivoje D. Krušković & Tina Maričić, 2015. "Monetary Targeting," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(3), pages 137-146.
    2. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9358-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Declan Trott, 2015. "Australia and the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Some Monetary Policy Options," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 5-20.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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