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Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?

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  • Hans-Eggert Reimers

Abstract

In this paper, the importance of money for the output development is analysed over the period from 1980 to 2000 for the euro area, where simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates are used. Adapting an in-sample analysis, all real monetary aggregates help to explain the output gap of the euro area regardless of what real interest rate is used to explain the IS curve. The out-of-sample forecasting exercise presents evidence that broadly defined monetary aggregates reduce the forecast errors of the output gap in the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 231-252, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-ii-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Jens Boysen‐Hogrefe, 2015. "Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 533-542, November.
    2. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2005. "Money and Prices in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Nov 2005.
    3. Livio Stracca, 2004. "Does Liquidity Matter? Properties of a Divisia Monetary Aggregate in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 309-331, July.
    4. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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