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Does Money Include Information for Prices in the Euro Area? / Enthält Geld Informationen für die Preisentwicklung im Eurowährungsgebiet?

  • Reimers Hans-Eggert

    ()

    (Hochschule Wismar, Fachhochschule für Technik, Wirtschaft und Gestaltung, Philipp-Müller-Straße, PF 1210, D-23952 Wismar. Tel.: ++49/+38 41/ 75 3601, Fax: ++49/+38 41/75 33 83)

Summary In this paper, the P-star framework is mainly used to examine the importance of money for future price movements in the euro area. Constructing the equilibrium price level, simple-sum M3 and different Divisia M3 aggregates are considered. In addition, nominal money changes are investigated in inflation equations. Adapting an in-sample analysis, Divisia aggregates are important for HICP development and to some extent for GDP deflator movement. The out-of-sample forecasting exercise presents evidence that simple-sum M3 includes more information for the HICP, whereas one of the Divisia aggregates helps to predict the future GDP deflator.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik).

Volume (Year): 223 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 581-602

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:223:y:2003:i:5:p:581-602
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  1. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
  2. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing long run neutrality," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
  6. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
  7. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  11. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
  12. Stracca, Livio, 2001. "Does liquidity matter? Properties of a synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0079, European Central Bank.
  13. Luca Dedola & Eugenio Gaiotti & Luca Silipo, 2001. "Money demand in the euro area: do national differences matter?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 405, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The demand for divisia money in a core monetary union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-60.
  15. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
  16. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  17. Livio Stracca, 2003. "The Functional Form Of The Demand For Euro Area M1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 172-204, 03.
  18. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas Jordan & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(2), pages 244-272, June.
  19. Drake, L. & Mullineux, A., 1995. "One Divisa Money for Europe?," Discussion Papers 95-04, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  20. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
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