P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity
This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to obtain real-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. We find that while a $P^*$ model assuming a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts in the 1990s, a model based on our time-varying equilibrium velocity estimates does quite well.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joshua N. Feinman & Richard D. Porter, 1992. "The continuing weakness in the M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 209, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1994.
"The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-51.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1994. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-51.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1993. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregates that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- William C. Whitesell & Sean Collins, 1996. "A minor redefinition of M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "The P* model of inflation revisited," Working Papers 9414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:52:y:2000:i:1-2:p:87-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.