Forecasting M2 growth: an exploration in real time
Evan Koenig presents a model that has proved successful at reproducing the pattern of M2 growth over the first half of the decade of the 1990s. The model suggests that a large gap between long-term bond yields and M2 deposit rates contributed importantly to the slow money growth that persisted through the end of 1994. The increased availability of bond market mutual funds may also have played a role in the money growth slowdown. The model can be combined with real-time published forecasts of spending and interest rates to yield predictions of future changes in money growth. It has generally performed well in this regard. However, in 1995 a sharp flattening of the yield curve led to a more-pronounced-than-expected acceleration of M2 growth, calling the future forecasting performance of the model into question. Results for an M2 aggregate expanded to include household bond funds are similar.
Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
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