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Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries

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  • Kathryn Koenders
  • Richard Rogerson

Abstract

This paper proposes a new explanation for the apparent slow growth in employment during the past two recoveries. The authors' explanation emphasizes dynamics within growing organizations and the intertemporal substitution of organizational restructuring. A key implication of the analysis is that recoveries from recessions following long expansions will have slower employment growth. Empirical analysis shows that the recovery that began in 1970 also exhibited slow employment growth, consistent with this prediction of the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Koenders & Richard Rogerson, 2005. "Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 555-580.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2005:i:jul:p:555-580:n:v.87no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 2004. "Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomics 0412014, EconWPA.
    2. Irene Bertschek & Ulrich Kaiser, 2004. "Productivity Effects of Organizational Change: Microeconometric Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 394-404, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lazear, Edward P. & Shaw, Kathryn L. & Stanton, Christopher, 2014. "Making do with less: working harder during recessions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60617, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Faberman, R. Jason, 2017. "Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 152-170.
    3. Edward P. Lazear & Kathryn L. Shaw & Christopher Stanton, 2014. "Making Do With Less: Working Harder During Recessions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1321, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Tim Willems, 2013. "Imperfect information, lagged labour adjustment, and the Great Moderation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 219-239, April.
    5. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    6. Brad J. Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2016. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 16-254, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    7. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    8. Thijs van Rens, 2004. "Organizational capital and employment fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 944, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 21864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Roger M. Gomis & Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Firm dynamics and business cycle: What doesn't kill you makes you stronger?," IHEID Working Papers 03-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Engemann, Kristie M. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Whatever Happened To The Business Cycle? A Bayesian Analysis Of Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 709-726, November.
    12. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2007. "How well does employment predict output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 433-446.
    13. Otsu, Keisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2013. "Organizational dynamics and aggregate fluctuations: The role of financial relationships," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 3044-3058.
    14. Todd Neumann & Jason Taylor & Price Fishback, 2013. "Fluctuations in Weekly Hours and Total Hours Worked Over the Past 90 Years and the Importance of Changes in Federal Policy Toward Job Sharing," NBER Working Papers 18816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
    16. David Berger, 2012. "Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries," 2012 Meeting Papers 1179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Hugo Erken & Eric van Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch labour market in the Great Recession," CPB Discussion Paper 303, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Andrew Figura & William L. Wascher, 2008. "The causes and consequences of economic restructuring: evidence from the early 21st century," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    20. Johannes Wieland & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2015. "Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Lazear, Edward P. & Shaw, Kathryn L. & Stanton, Christopher, 2014. "Making do with less: working harder during recessions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59066, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    Keywords

    Employment ; Recessions ; Business cycles;

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