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2000-2040 : population active et croissance

  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Mathieu Plane

We explore the consequences of ageing on the French labour force. Baby-boom generations are going to leave gradually the labour market and will be partially replaced by younger ones. Differences in generations size will have an impact on the dependence ratio and therefore on the potential growth of output per head and on the balance of pension schemes. One of the remedy to labour force deficit could be an increase in participation rates, especially in the oldest and youngest. The progressive suppression of early retirement schemes could rise the participation rate of the oldest, while job-training association could increase the youngest one. According to our central projection, labour force would grow until 2016, before it will fall and reach in 2040 the level it has been in 2000.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 79 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 235-259

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_079_0235
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