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2000-2040 : population active et croissance

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  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Mathieu Plane

Abstract

We explore the consequences of ageing on the French labour force. Baby-boom generations are going to leave gradually the labour market and will be partially replaced by younger ones. Differences in generations size will have an impact on the dependence ratio and therefore on the potential growth of output per head and on the balance of pension schemes. One of the remedy to labour force deficit could be an increase in participation rates, especially in the oldest and youngest. The progressive suppression of early retirement schemes could rise the participation rate of the oldest, while job-training association could increase the youngest one. According to our central projection, labour force would grow until 2016, before it will fall and reach in 2040 the level it has been in 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Chauvin & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "2000-2040 : population active et croissance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 235-259.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_079_0235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2246 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jørgen Elmeskov & Karl Pichelmann, 1993. "Unemployment and Labour Force Participation: Trends and Cycles," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 130, OECD Publishing.
    3. Valérie Chauvin, 2000. "Les comptables nationaux s'accordent entre eux. Modification de la comptabilité nationale en France," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 157-183.
    4. Élisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale. Comparaison de six pays de l'Union Européenne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 261-314.
    5. Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 137-155.
    6. Elisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2004. "Vieillissement et protection sociale en Europe et aux Etats-Unis," Post-Print hal-00972790, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    2. Filatriau Olivier & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "A new estimate of discouraged and additional worker effects on labor participation by sex and age in oecd countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po publications 2008-34, Sciences Po.
    4. Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2014. "Crise de la théorie et crise de la politique économique. Des modèles d'équilibre général stochastique aux modèles de dynamique hors de l'équilibre," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 65(1), pages 71-96.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h18ghk9 is not listed on IDEAS

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