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2000-2040 : population active et croissance

  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Mathieu Plane

We explore the consequences of ageing on the French labour force. Baby-boom generations are going to leave gradually the labour market and will be partially replaced by younger ones. Differences in generations size will have an impact on the dependence ratio and therefore on the potential growth of output per head and on the balance of pension schemes. One of the remedy to labour force deficit could be an increase in participation rates, especially in the oldest and youngest. The progressive suppression of early retirement schemes could rise the participation rate of the oldest, while job-training association could increase the youngest one. According to our central projection, labour force would grow until 2016, before it will fall and reach in 2040 the level it has been in 2000.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 79 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 235-259

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_079_0235
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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  1. Jørgen Elmeskov & Karl Pichelmann, 1993. "Unemployment and Labour Force Participation: Trends and Cycles," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 130, OECD Publishing.
  2. Elisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2004. "Vieillissement et protection sociale en Europe et aux Etats-Unis," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2882, Sciences Po.
  3. Valérie Chauvin, 2000. "Les comptables nationaux s'accordent entre eux. Modification de la comptabilité nationale en France," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 157-183.
  4. Elisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale : Comparaison de six pays de l'Union européenne," Post-Print hal-01017104, HAL.
  5. Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 137-155.
  6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2246 is not listed on IDEAS
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