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Vieillissement et protection sociale : Comparaison de six pays de l'Union européenne

Author

Listed:
  • Elisabeth Algava

    (DREES - Centre de Recherche du DREES - Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le vieillissement de la population est une caractéristique commune à tous les pays de l'Union européenne. Seuls l'ampleur et le calendrier de ce phénomène diffèrent selon les pays. La déformation des pyramides des âges devrait avoir des effets importants sur les économies européennes et en particulier sur les systèmes de protection sociale. La hausse de l'espérance de vie et le vieillissement des générations nombreuses du baby boom, associés à la chute de la fécondité depuis les années 1970, auront inéluctablement des conséquences sur la proportion de personnes âgées et d'inactifs dans la population, et, de ce fait, sur la part du PIB consacrée au financement des dépenses de retraite et de santé. En revanche, cette hausse pourrait être très partiellement contrecarrée par le retour au plein emploi et la baisse du nombre d'enfants qui devraient permettre une diminution des dépenses consacrées aux prestations chômage et aux prestations familiales. Le poids de la démographie est important : c'est dans les pays où la fécondité est la plus faible que les problèmes les plus importants risquent de se poser (notamment en Italie), tandis que les comportements démographiques dynamiques conservés par certains pays (comme la Suède), semblent atténuer grandement l'impact du vieillissement sur le système de protection sociale.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale : Comparaison de six pays de l'Union européenne," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01017104, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01017104
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.079.0261
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01017104
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    Cited by:

    1. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    2. Valérie Chauvin & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "2000-2040 : population active et croissance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 235-259.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2245 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Arnaud Lechevalier, 2004. "Reform des Sozialstaats in Deutschland und Frankreich: was auf dem Spiel steht (Welfare state policies in France and Germany : what is really at stake ?)," Labor and Demography 0406002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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