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Unemployment Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Eeckhout
  • Ilse Lindenlaub

Abstract

The labor market by itself can create cyclical outcomes, even in the absence of exogenous shocks. We propose a theory in which the search behavior of the employed has profound aggregate implications for the unemployed. There is a strategic complementarity between active on-the-job search and vacancy posting by firms, which leads to multiple equilibria: in the presence of sorting, active on-the-job search improves the quality of the pool of searchers. This encourages vacancy posting, which in turn makes costly on-the-job search more attractive—a self-fulfilling equilibrium. The model provides a rationale for the Jobless Recovery, the outward shift of the Beveridge curve during the boom and for pro-cyclical frictional wage dispersion. Central to the model's mechanism is the fact that the employed crowd out the unemployed when on-the-job search picks up during recovery. We also illustrate this mechanism in a stylized calibration exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Eeckhout & Ilse Lindenlaub, 2019. "Unemployment Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 175-234, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:175-234
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180105
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2021. "Okun’s law revisited in the time–frequency domain: introducing unemployment into a wavelet-based control model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2635-2662, November.
    2. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Bradley, Jake, 2022. "Worker-Firm Screening and the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 15017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-55.
    5. Jan Eeckhout & Alireza Sepahsalari, 2024. "The Effect of Wealth on Worker Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(3), pages 1584-1633.
    6. Schaal, Edouard & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2023. "Herding through booms and busts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    7. He, Chao & Fan, Xiaodong, 2024. "The paradox of search intensity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    8. Bransch, Felix & Malik, Samreen & Mihm, Benedikt, 2024. "The cyclicality of on-the-job search," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Hassan Molana & Catia Montagna & George E. Onwordi, 2021. "De-Globalization, Welfare State Reforms and Labor Market Outcomes," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 624-655, December.
    10. Basso, Gaetano & Depalo, Domenico & Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2023. "Worker flows and reallocation during the recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Eeckhout, Jan & Weng, Xi, 2024. "The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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