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Herding Through Booms and Busts

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  • Schaal, Edouard
  • Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu

Abstract

This paper explores whether rational herding can generate endogenous aggregate fluctuations. We embed a tractable model of rational herding into a business cycle framework. In the model, technological innovations arrive with unknown qualities and agents have dispersed information about how productive the technology really is. Rational investors decide whether to invest based on their private information and the investment behavior of others. Herd-driven boom-bust cycles arise endogenously in this environment when the technology is unproductive but investors' initial information is unusually optimistic. Their overoptimism leads to high investment rates, which investors mistakenly attribute to good fundamentals, leading to a self-reinforcing pattern of higher optimism and higher investment until the economy reaches a peak, followed by a crash when agents ultimately realize their mistake. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and show that it can explain boom-and-bust cycles in line with episodes like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Schaal, Edouard & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2021. "Herding Through Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 16368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16368
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    Cited by:

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    2. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2024. "Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2427, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei & Yang, Zhongchao, 2024. "Delayed crises and slow recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Wei, Jianxing & Xu, Tong, 2024. "Banking supervision with loopholes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Franziska Klügl & Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, 2024. "Double whammy? Trade and automation in engineering services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1493-1520, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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