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Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls


  • Harris Dellas
  • Alan C. Stockman


This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a non-zero probability that the policymaker's response to a speculative attack on official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls, such an attack may occur even when current and expected monetary policy is consistent with a permanently viable, control-free fixed exchange rate regime. Consequently, capital controls may be the outcome of self- fulfilling expectations rather than the result of imprudent economic policies.

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  • Harris Dellas & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls," NBER Working Papers 2625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2625
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "The Order of Liberalization of the Current and Capital Accounts of the Balance of Payments: A Survey of the Major Issues," UCLA Economics Working Papers 310, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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