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The Morning After: The Mexican Peso in the Aftermath of the 1994 Currency Crisis

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  • Sebastian Edwards
  • Miguel A. Savastano

Abstract

The Mexican peso crisis of December 1994 shocked politicians, analysits, and pundits. Shock was followed by panic, as investors flew the country. It took a massive bail-out package put together by the IMF and the US Treasury to generate some tranquility in the markets in mid to late 1995. From early on the Mexican authorities stated that stabilizing the value of the peso, within the context of a freely floating exchange rate regime, was one of their most important objectives. During most of 1995 this objective seemed to be highly elusive. Starting in 1996, however, the peso began to exhibit an impressive degree of stability. So much so that a number of analysts began to wonder whether this stability was consistent with a freely floating regime. Some even argued that it was d‚j… vu' all over again, and that the Bank of Mexico was manipulating monetary policy in order to artificially maintain a strong peso. In this paper we try to explain the relative stability exhibited by the peso/dollar nominal exchange rate since late 1995. Specifically, we approach this issue from two main angles: First, we ask whether the behavior of the peso/dollar rate since 1995 is broadly comparable or consistent with the behavior of a 'typical' floating exchange rate. Our answer to this question was a qualified yes. Second, we explore whether during 1996-97 the Bank of Mexico followed some sort of feedback rule from the exchange rate to monetary policy. Our answer to this question was another qualified yes, but perhaps more strongly qualified than the first one.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1998. "The Morning After: The Mexican Peso in the Aftermath of the 1994 Currency Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6516
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6516.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alejandro M. Werner, 1996. "Mexico'S Currency Risk Premia in 1992-1994; A Closer Look At the Interest Rate Differentials," IMF Working Papers 96/41, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kevin X.D. Huang & Thaneepanichskul Suchada, 2003. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Cases of Mexico and Thailand in the Aftermaths of their Recent Currency Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 375-400, November.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.
    4. Jesus Munoz, 2011. "Orthodox versus Heterodox (Minskyan) Perspectives of Financial Crises: Explosion in the 1990s versus Implosion in the 2000s," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_695, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Michael Dooley & Rudi Dornbusch & Yung Chul Park, 2002. "A Framework for Exchange Rate Policy in Korea," Finance Working Papers 21757, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Chul Park, Yung & Chung, Chae-Shick & Wang, Yunjong, 2001. "Fear of Floating: Korea's Exchange Rate Policy after the Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 225-251, June.
    7. Alessandro Zanello & Mark R. Stone & Christopher J. Jarvis & Andrew Berg, 2003. "Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis; A Review of Recent Experience," IMF Working Papers 03/76, International Monetary Fund.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:67:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andrés VELASCO, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policies For Developing Countries: What Have We Learned? What Do We Still Not Know?," G-24 Discussion Papers 5, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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