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The credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band system

Author

Listed:
  • María I. Campos

    ()

  • José L. Torres

    ()

  • Esmeralda Villegas

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies the credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band exchange rate regime during the period July, 1996-February, 2002. We show that, introducing some modifications, the credibility analysis widely applied to target zone regimes can also be used in studying the credibility of crawling- band regimes. In analyzing the credibility of the Venezuela crawling band, first we use the so-called simple credibility tests developed by Svensson (1991). Additionally, we estimate the expected rate of realignment using the drift- adjustment method. Both the credibility tests and the drift-adjustment method give similar results, showing that the crawling-band system was highly credible during the period.

Suggested Citation

  • María I. Campos & José L. Torres & Esmeralda Villegas, 2006. "The credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band system," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003580
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    File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1107/1001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
    2. Williamson, John, 1982. "A survey of the literature on the optimal peg," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 39-61, August.
    3. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    4. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14.
    5. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crawling band exchange rate system; credibility; realignments;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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