The credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band system
This paper studies the credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band exchange rate regime during the period July, 1996-February, 2002. We show that, introducing some modifications, the credibility analysis widely applied to target zone regimes can also be used in studying the credibility of crawling- band regimes. In analyzing the credibility of the Venezuela crawling band, first we use the so-called simple credibility tests developed by Svensson (1991). Additionally, we estimate the expected rate of realignment using the drift- adjustment method. Both the credibility tests and the drift-adjustment method give similar results, showing that the crawling-band system was highly credible during the period.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): (December)
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- Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990.
"Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models,"
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- Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Williamson, John, 1982. "A survey of the literature on the optimal peg," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 39-61, August.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1990.
"The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility,"
469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
- John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14.
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