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Impact of Exchange Market Forces on Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates during Globalization Period: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari

    () (Corresponding Author: Senior Research Fellow, Faculty of Computer Sciences and I.T. Department of Computer Sciences, FUUAST, Karachi, Pakistan.)

  • Muhammad Shahbaz Akmal

    () (Research Scholar, Associate Professor/Senior Research Economist, Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi University, Pakistan.)

  • Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt

    () (Associate Professor/Senior Research Economist, Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi University, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of exchange market forces on Pak-Rupee/US dollar exchange rates during the 1965-1971 globalization period. The main findings are that a) the behavior of Pakistan’s fundamentals relative to those of the USA help to explain exchange market forces against the Pak-Rupee; b) during the run up todevaluation in the globalization period the monetary authorities in Pakistan were acting to reduce domestic credit; but that c) additional pressurewas brought against the Pak-Rupee from speculative sources. These findings relate to current thinking on the choice of the exchange rate regime as even well behaved fundamentals may not be sufficient to sustain a currency on its peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari & Muhammad Shahbaz Akmal & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2006. "Impact of Exchange Market Forces on Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates during Globalization Period: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 121-139, Jan-Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:11:y:2006:i:1:p:121-139
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
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    3. Shaista Alam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt & Azhar Iqbal, 2001. "The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 577-602.
    4. Spolander, Mikko, 1999. "Measuring exchange market pressure and central bank intervention," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 17/1999, January.
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    6. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    7. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
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    9. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange market forces; pegged exchange rates; realignment expectations.;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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