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Time Varying Dimension Models

  • Joshua C.C. Chan
  • Garry Koop

    ()

  • Roberto Leon Gonzales
  • Rodney W. Strachan

Abstract: Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US in.ation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

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File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp523.pdf
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Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2010-523.

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Length: 34 Pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2010-523
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